The Wooden Spoon goes to the New Year pundit who gets it most spectacularly wrong (a wooden spoon is a traditional prize in Britain for the team that comes last in a competition). 2008 was definitely a tough year to call with few pundits predicting a financial meltdown while most where over-optimistic in predicting things that failed to happen.
This year there are four runners-up for the title of worst pundit of 2008. They are Don Reisinger of CNET, Louis Gray of LouisGray.com, Business Week and Jim Cramer in New York Magazine.
Don Reisinger managed to get four out of his five predictions wrong, namely that DRM would end (still here), Google to take mobile by storm (not yet), the rise of IPTV (growing but hardly broken through) and that the Wii would fall flat on its face (it is currently outselling the PS3 and Xbox combined).
Louis Gray is another contender in the wooden spoon race with predictions that Google would beat Techmeme (not yet), Facebook buys Digg, eBay sells StumbleUpon, Twitter adds photos/videos, a major browser ships with Ad Block and that Robert Scoble leaves Fast Company. His solitary clear success was that video blogging would remain unprofitable.
2008 wasn’t a vintage year for Business Week either. While they predicted a crash for Web 2.0 and crude oil going through $100 they also predicted that airlines would consolidate, a back lash against the green movement, Bloomberg to run for president, Clinton to get the Democrat nomination, McCain to win and Apple to have a resounding success with Apple TV. Potentially a home run of inaccurate predictions.
Jim Cramer could be a category in himself. While he made some accurate predictions (Chrysler failure and bailout, Google continuing to dominate and New York Times dropping below $10) his depth on analysis seems to be that things will always continue in the direction they are travelling in (i.e. stock going up then it will go through the roof, stock headed down then the company will go bust). Using that analysis led him to predict Goldman hitting $300 (“an inevitability”, it ended the year at $89), Google to $1,000 (oops, it ended at $308) and oil to surge to $125 as we are running out (as it ended the year below $50, the Saudis must have found some more obviously).
However, none of these compare with noted futurologist and principal behind the Strategy News Service, Mark Anderson. Here are his predictions in full as reported by Information Week (with our scoring in bold):
1. Users revolt. “The desire to connect will run head into the desire to promote,” he said. “From Second Live rules to issues with privacy on Facebook to cell phone bills, users now have control.” Users, Anderson warned, want to connect and any interruptions in this process on the part of marketers or advertisers will be met with swift and harsh response on the part of all users.
This did happen in 2007 with, for example, user’s highly negative reaction to Facebook Beacon. However, potentially because companies had learned their lessons, it was not a headline issue in 2008.
2. No more walled gardens. “Net neutrality will prevail. The box guys — the Nokias, Apples, Microsofts, etc. — will prevail over the pipe guys (the carriers).”
No significant change here. The carriers remain with as tight a grip on the consumer as they did at the end of 2007. Notably, jail breaking of the first iPhone was a notable event (which allowed consumers to use it on other networks) however with the success of the app store the attraction of breaking the 3G iPhone was muted.
3. By expanding everywhere the Web will disappear. Users, Anderson said, “want the service, not the history.” Web audiences will begin to experience serious segmentation next year, as will online ad money. Much of the online ad dollars will flow to luxury products and to permission-based marketing schemes as advertisers leave interruption marketing behind.
Web seems to be still there and interruption marketing doesn’t seem to leaving the scene any time soon either. The mix of ad dollars hasn’t significantly shifted to luxury products and permission based marketing schemes.
4. High definition drives a reversal in U.S. bandwidth capacity. “Thanks to high def,” Anderson said, “consumers will demand more bandwidth.” As evidence he pointed out the success of Verizon (NYSE: VZ)’s new fiber strategy, and how hard is it for entrenched cable providers, like Comcast (NSDQ: CMCSA), to fight against it.
Not really a prediction more a statement of a trend.
5. Countries will have to behave better and the fake Internet will collapse. This means that Web censorship will begin to go away. “Real Net access is on the path to becoming a basic human right.”
Not seen that one materialize. The Great Firewall of China is still intact, Australia now has one in the pipeline and now the UK is planning to much more closely monitor internet usage.
6. The world agrees that one-on-one training for children is inevitable. The world is about to rethink the future of education.
The world just about managed to agree that it was in danger of entering a global depression. There wasn’t even much agreement on climate change, trade or the proliferation of nuclear weapons. I guess the children will have to wait another year.
7. U.S. healthcare gets a proper diagnosis. Anderson said that the 2008 presidential election will force America to take notice of just how broken its healthcare system really is.
Probably a half point for this one. The problems of US healthcare system was extensively discussed during the Democrat primary however the financial crisis pushed it off the agenda of critical issues.
8. Small PCs break out as a category. The perpetual little engine that could, the Ultra Mobile PC, will finally come into its own in 2008. Anderson even predicts that Apple will make one, despite what some critics claim.
Again a half point on this one. Small PCs did break out as a category in 2008 but it was net books rather than Ultra Mobile PCs that form the category.
9. 2008 will be the year where LEDs become common for lighting. As evidence for this trend, Anderson pointed out that new Christmas lights this year are LEDs.
Again more of a statement of a trend rather than a prediction.
10. 2008 should be the first year when alternative energy cars go into production in the U.S. Anderson pointed out that Honda will deliver hydrogen-powered cars in California that will lease for around $600 a month. Tesla, the electric sports car maker, is also expected to ship product next year.
Alternative energy cars were already in production at the end of 2007. Honda did indeed deliver hydrogen-powered cars to California, five to be exact and even they were built in Japan. Tesla did ship its Model S electric sports cars in 2008 and by the end of the year managed to get the 100th out the door. A start no doubt, but 2008 was hardly the year of the alternative energy car.
With a grand total of one out of ten that makes Mark Andersen our worst pundit of 2008 and the inaugural recipient of the New Year pundit wooden spoon. Mark has quite an illustrious resume and claims a 93% accuracy rating. Who predicts that the wooden spoon will be added to his list of accomplishments?
Pundit Awards
awards, predictions, pundits, wooden spoon
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