As the final votes came through the House and Senate this past week, the tension in Washington and throughout America was visible to all. However the stimulus package provided a rare opportunity here at Hubdub. We were presented with a market from one of our users asking How much will the Final Stimulus Bill cost. The options were spread out very evenly, under 700 billion, 700-750 Billion, 750 - 800 Billion, over 800 Billion or no deal before March 29th. The percentages were spread out incredibly well, at 10, 20, 35, 30, and 5 respectively. The news reports were reporting a deal exceeding 800 billion during the preliminary stages of the bill, then news leaked it could dip down to 780 billion, and this is where the excitement blossomed. We had users who seemed to take two very hardlined approaches, and those users began to get into the market deep. One of the secrets to success at Hubdub is if you bought a position at 45%, and then it went to 30%, you should love it even more. That is a hard thing to commit to when the trend seems to be going away from you.
One of the most successful users in this market is Paul (username pmk2668) who originally bought in with a 5,000 dollar wager on 750-800 billion at 47%. He believed that in order for deal to be approved, cuts to spending would have to be made, however as the days went by, all the news kept the package price at above 800 Billion. Paul was able to continue buying into the postion of 750-800 Billion at better and better odds, as the mainstream seemed to believe it would be higher. By the time the congress was ready to vote, Paul had more than 123,948 dollars in the market, with a potential windfall of $238,628 dollars. Paul even took several opportunities to cash out about $26,000 in wagers earning him about $37,000 so he could buy in with those profits at the lower percentages. This market was made possible because there was a large user base of people pumping money into what the mainstream media reported would be the 800 Billion plus number. One of my favorite quotes from Paul is that he said “I woke up one morning and thought there had been a huge error at Hubdub, I was worthy twice what I went to bed with”. What he quickly learned is that the mainstream media had finally heard the amount reached by compromise was going to be 787 Billion. So Paul went from rags to riches in a few short days. While many Hubdubbers on the other side of the coin lost substantial amounts, many were able to pull money out on the way down to limit the loss.
It is not very often a market becomes this exciting, with fortunes won and loss as fast as the news breaks. The graph for this market is one of the most spectacular in recent history. I wonder how many of you out there would have had the nerves to let your 90% of your net worth ride on such a huge market. I know for me, I played it safe, I bought in and sold out of market a few times, earning small rewards. The final statistics on this market were over 880 predictions made, more than $500,000 in wagers placed, 77 comments, and a unique outcome, those who wagered in lost were congratulating Paul, who in his words said this “People were sending me messages and congratulatory remarks. Here I had won a ton of money and everyone appeared happy for me. I think that says a lot about those involved. The heart felt comments were almost touching enough to give the HUBDUB funds back…..I said almost! I will be giving it away sometime I am sure in my next wild prediction…..or perhaps the one after that or somewhere down the line. I am happy to encourage someone to beat me and will offer congratulations when it happens. Until then today is my day and I am trying my best to climb up the leader board.”
How much will the Final Stimulus bill Cost?
politics
barack obama, congress, house, senate, stimulus
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