When I saw that my old buddy Nate Silver, of fivethirtyeight fame, had posted his own Oscar predictions, I figured it was time for me to get off my duff and update my nomination predictions.

Best Picture

 How I did:  Like many other Oscar pundits, I gave the final Best Picture slot to Dark Knight, but Academy voters gave the nod to The Reader instead (which can only enhance Kate’s Best Actress chances). 4 out of 5

Who will win: No changes here.  Slumdog Millionaire will walk out Sunday night the big winner. Nate Silver, Oscar experts, Hubdub and I are all unified on this prediction.

Best Actor

How I did: The big three were always easy to predict, but Richard Jenkins nomination was a surprise to many, including me. I’m glad Brad made the nomination cut, even if he never had a chance for the actual Oscar. At least we can be assured of Brangelina’s presence on Sunday night. 3 of 5

Who will win:  Even though there were 5 nominees, there are only two contenders for the win.  Popular opinion is evenly split between Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn and Hubdub currently has them exactly tied…  Mickey has taken most of the recent bling, but I still give the edge to Sean Penn this time around. He’s due.

81st Academy Awards: Who will win the Oscar for Best Actor?

Best Actress

How I did: Although I still nailed 3 out of 5, I was far away from predicting the strong contenders. Angelina and Melissa Leo’s nominations were somewhat surprising and my early pick of Anne Hathaway to win is clearly wrong as she’s not even in the running anymore.

Who will win: Kate Winslet’s  supporting role in The Reader was elevated to a Best Actress nomination and the strong groundswell around the nomination will likely lead her to a win.

81st Academy Awards: Who will win the Oscar for Best Actress?

Best Supporting Actor

Who will win:  Heath Ledger. I don’t know why they haven’t just mailed the award to his estate months ago.

Best Supporting Actress

Who will win: Nate Silver predicts a surprising upset in this category with Taraji Henson taking home the lone acting award for Benjamin Button. Although I would love for Button to take home one of the biggies I think Academy voters will stick with Penelope Cruz on this one.

Best Song

Who will win:  I have no idea. This is a tricky category as 1) there were only three songs nominated and 2) 66% of them are from the same movie and 3) Peter Gabriel has refused to perform his song, Down to Earth, at the awards because they asked him to shorten it. Slumdog’s support may be divided between its two contenders Jai Ho and O Saya, giving an edge to Wall-E’s Down to Earth. On the other hand, Slumdog is clearly the darling this awards season garnering nearly every award that its eligible for. I’m also uncertain if Gabriel’s grandstanding will earn him sympathy or disgust with Academy voters. For now I give the edge to Jai Ho, but I won’t be putting much h$ on this one.

81st Academy Awards: Who will win the Oscar for Best Original Song?

There are plenty more Oscar markets here.  Make your bets before the awards this Sunday!

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