Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics
At Hubdub we do like predicting the outcomes of polls. So it’s no surprise that a market on the Real Clear Politics Polling Average for Obama’s approval rating is getting some action. The outcome of the G20 Summit this week is sure to affect Obama’s polling numbers, currently at 61%. Hubdub forecasts by weeks end Obama’s RCP polling is over 60.5%

RCP Poll Average: President Obama Job Approval - O/U 60.5% on Saturday, April 4th?

World
North Korea always loves being the center of attention, and now they plan to launch a ballistic missile loaded with a communications satellite, but is it actually a communications satellite? Japan has doubts and has threatened to shoot it down. According to Hubdub a Japanese shoot down is unlikely, with only a 8% chance it happens.

Will Japan shoot down North Korea’s missile?

Business
The US unemployment rate for February was 8.1%, the highest since 1983. The upwards trend isn’t forecast to stop anytime soon either. For March Hubdubbers predict the US unemployment rate will certainly trump 8.1%. How bad will it be? The most likely rate for March is 8.5%.

What will the US unemployment rate be for March 2009?

Sports
We’re finally down to the final four of March Madness this week. The most anticipated game is going to be the University of Connecticut Huskies (31-4) going up against the Michigan State Spartans (29-6). From the Hubdub market it certainly looks as if the Huskies are the front runners, with a 66% chance of defeating the Spartans.

Final Four - #1 UConn vs #2 Michigan State. Who will win?

Technology

The Conficker worm is set to get a major update on April 1st. The virus has infected thousands upon thousands of corporate networks all over the world, but it hasn’t yet been activated. Whatever happens on April fools day, the designer or designers of the Conficker worm are being hunted. Will they ever get caught? For 2009 it seems unlikely.

When will the creator of the Conficker Worm be caught?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Uncategorized approval rating, april fools day, ballistic missile, barack obama, Conficker, Conficker worm, economic recovery, financial crisis, forecast, g20, hacker, hubdub, japan, job approval, march, March Madness, Michigan State Spartans, missile, north korea, predict, Prediction, rate, rcp, real clear politics, recession, shoot down, unemployment, united states, University of Connecticut Huskies, virus

Yesterday, I received my weekly copy of Sports Illustrated Magazine just as I do every Wednesday. Just one day before the start of the Sweet 16, I was reminded of all of the stories that make the tournament so exciting.

Which team will have an opportunity to redeem itself - from past tournaments or even this year. During the regular season, Duke lost twice to North Carolina. Now, they sit 2 games away from possibly facing them again. Similarly, there is a chance that #1 seed UConn could end up facing #1 seeded Pittsburgh in the Championship game - the team who knocked them out of the #1 spot in the rankings twice during the regular season.The lowest remaining seed, #12 Arizona faced skepticism for being invited to the Big Dance. Now, they have an opportunity to advance with the best of the best (despite 13 losses during the regular season).

In reading the article by Kelli Anderson (SI 3/09), I was reminded that it was as recently as 1995 when coach Dan Monson began each press conference by announcing “it’s pronounced gone-zag-ah.” Now, the Bulldogs are a legitimate contender. So, here we find ourselves with the final 16 consisting of the 14 top teams. We have the dynamic duo from Carolina - Tyler and Hansbrough; several coaches with rings and those looking for their first (among those being John Calipari of Memphis - who lost last year’s title game to Kansas).

So, while it doesn’t look like there will be a “Cinderella Story” this year, it looks like we can expect some in your face, do or die, basketball with some great matchups. Will Calipari get his ring? Will Senior, A.J. Price get his? I anticipate some very close games and the likelihood of another historic buzzer beater. Which team will be sent home with hopes shattered? Who will make history and fulfill their dreams as the next champ?

Be sure to check out our March Madness Predict-a-thon to get your picks in and see how well you do against others. Let the excitement begin!

Uncategorized basketball tournament, college hoops, March Madness, NCAAB, Sweet 16

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics
Tim Geithner has been getting  a unfair rap for his desperate attempts to fix our ailing economy. I mean he is kind of running a one man show at the Treasury department. Undoubtedly this week he’ll be used again as a political punching bag, but will the complaints and criticisms lead to anything? Hubdubbers doubt it giving Geithner only a 20% chance of leaving his post by 2010.

Will Tim Geithner depart as Secretary of the Treasury before midnight on 31 Dec 2009?

President Obama has a primetime press conference this week to reiterate his plans for the federal budget this year. It won’t all be numbers and graphs though, with Hubdub forecasting President Obama will talk about his NCAA Basketball picks during the press conference.

President Obama Primetime Press Conf. 3/24/09: Will he be asked about his NCAA Basketball picks?

Business
The Dow’s been having some pretty good days these past few weeks. So much so that before March 31st Hubdubbers predict there’s a 56% chance that the Dow closes above 7500.

Dow - Up or down ? Which comes first, 6500 or 7500?

Sports
The NCAAB tournament continues this week, and one of the major games to watch will be when Oklahoma state goes against Syracuse on Friday. The game is bound to be close but right now Oklahoma has edged up against Syracuse, with a 52% chance of winning on Friday.

NCAAB Tournament - #2 Oklahoma vs #3 Syracuse. Who will win?

Entertainment

This week American Idol heads to Detroit where contestants will compete in the category of Motown music. Who’s likely to get the least support? Hubdub forecasts Michael Sarver has the highest chance of getting the fewest votes this week.

Who will have the fewest votes on American Idol this week?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Hubdub Top 5 american idol, barack obama, basketball, djia, dow, dow jones industrial average, economy, financial crisis, hubdub, March Madness, michael sarver, ncaa, NCAAB, Oklahoma, president obama, primetime press conference, secretary of the treasury, Syracuse, Tim Geithner, tournament, treasury department

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Sports

March Madness is upon us my friends and life is good! So far Hubdub isn’t forecasting any of the known teams will be crowned winner in two weeks time. Although so far it seems North Carolina is the second likeliest front runner. If you haven’t done so already check out Hubdub’s March Madness Predict-A-Thon for more NCAA forecasts.

Which Team will Win the NCAA Championship?

Politics
Some of our esteemed Supreme Court Justices are getting a bit old, and with Barack Obama now in the White House it’s likely a more liberal leaning justice will be appointed soon. The question though is which justice will step down first? Hubdub forecasts the most likely candidate for resignation is David Souter with a 55% chance of stepping down.

Who will be the first Supreme Court Justice replaced?

World News
With wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, it’s easy to forget sometimes that those countries aren’t the only possible threats to American security. A fact made clear this March when Chinese ships harassed an American naval ship in the South China Sea. Both sides don’t want an escalation of tensions, and thankfully Hubdubbers agree giving only a 29% chance of similar tensions within the next two weeks.

Will China further harass any US Navy ships operating in international waters?

Business
It seems our ailing economy is getting better number these days. Out of the woods? No, better than before? Yes. For now Hubdub forecasts there’s a 51% probability the Dow Jones Industrial Averages in 2009 will be within the 6000 to 6999.99 range.

What will be the lowest close for the DJIA in 2009?

Entertainment
American Idol Season 8 is heating up and with a final listing of 10 possible winners, we can finally start predicting who’s gonna grab first place this year. In the lead this week, Adam Lambert (43%) and in second place Danny Gokey (27%). We’ve got 7 more weeks though, so don’t put your eggs all in one basket just yet.

Who will win American Idol Season 8?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Hubdub Top 5 2009, adam lambert, american idol, barack obama, basketball, conflict, danny gokey, david souter, djia, dow jones industrial, harass, March Madness, navy China, ncaa, north carolina, politics, ruth bader ginsberg, south china sea, sports, supreme court, supreme court justices, us navy, war

The first real eliminations have taken place, taking us from an awkward 13 to a happy top 11. Somehow we have to eliminate another 10 before we get to the actual winner. That is if they don’t change the rules again and make it American Duo or something.

As for the new veto power unveiled tonight? I’m all for it. Since they only get one for the entire season, you have to believe it will be used wisely.

During which week will the American Idol judges invoke their voter override veto to save someone?

The Contenders

Danny Gokey - Talk about the total package: Sob story (young widower), Wholesome (Church music director) & Talented (take a listen). It doesn’t get much better than that. The only thing holding Danny back now is the inevitability of his win.

Adam Lambert - Seems to be far and above the most talented finalist this year. Adam has years of stage experience and an amazing vocal range.  I also found his choice of “Black or White” inspired given the press he’s been receiving regarding his sexuality lately. I’d be pretty unsurprised with an Adam vs Danny finale.

Alexis Grace - An early frontrunner, if she can keep up the momentum, she has a good chance to make the top 4, but her story doesn’t hold a candle to some of the others so she will need a Major Moment to proceed further.

Lil Rounds - After the auditions, I thought she was the best contestant of the season. After a couple episodes, I’m a little less impressed, but still place her firmly in the top 4. A Moment could make all the difference.

The Wild Cards

Kris Allen - One of my favorite contestants, with a smooth, Jason Mraz vibe. If he can last through the first couple of rounds as American gets a chance to know him I think he can go all the way.

Allison Iraheta - Like Kris, Allison was cursed with zero face time prior to the live shows. However, her amazing performance of Alone earned her spot. A slip by her in the early rounds will spell diasaster, but she has a good chance of going a long way this season.

Matt Giraud - The piano player. He’s talented and all, but I just can’t find myself caring enough. Unless he has a breakout performance soon, I think he’ll max out around the top 5.

The Also Rans

Anoop Desai - Anoop reminds me of a puppy dog. He may have just deystroyed your favorite pair of shoes but you want to pet him anyway. By far the least talented singer of the bunch, he’s just so darn likable that he’ll likely last at least another couple weeks before fading back into oblivion.

Megan Joy - Yes, she may be ‘different’ but different isn’t always better. She looks like a 6 year old with a bladder problem when she “dances” and her range seems completely nonexistent — although I do really hope she’s still around for country week just out of morbid curiousity. Update: Score! This week is Country week. Good, she can leave now.

Scott MacIntyre - I know he’s blind, but if I close *my* eyes when he sings, I can’t figure out why he’s still here. I will admit to a certain guilty fascination while watching the choreographed group numbers though.

Michael Sarver - Considered by many to be expendable, Michael came out swinging this first week. His suave voice and blue collar cred seems unlikely to save him past the early rounds, but he adds a great dimension to the finalists.

Who will win American Idol Season 8?

Uncategorized

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics
Every week seems to be a mixed bag, despite that though Obama’s approval rating is on a downward trend. Hubdub forecasts next Mondays approval rating will be within 61%-63%.

What will President Obama’s approval rating be on Monday March 16th, 2009?

Entertainment
The Rihanna and Chris Brown controversy seems to be something of a sticky issue for many. Despite all the hubbub regarding the Brown’s though, Hubdub predicts they’re most likely to either get engaged/married or the DA will drop all charges against Chris Brown.

What’s next for the R&B couple Rihanna and Chris Brown?

Sports
And so the MADNESS is upon us. Sports junkies and gamblers alike can rejoice this week as march madness kicks off. This year Hubdub predicts in NCAA Mens Basketball Connecticut has a 40% chance of winning the Big East Tournament.

NCAA Men’s Basketball - Team to win the Big East Tournament?

World News

Journalist Roxana Saberi was arrested on Feb. 1st in Iran for purchasing alcohol, which is illegal under Iranian law. The Iranian government has been mute on the issue while human rights group have accused Iran of stamping down on free speech from reporters. Where ever the truth lays by March 31st Hubdub forecasts there’s a 72% chance Roxana Saberi’s arrest is confirmed and she is not released.

Will Iranian authorities release journalist Roxana Saberi on or before March 31st?

Business

Bernie Madoff is a very bad, bad man, but will he seek redemption for his evil deeds by pleading guilty on all charges related to his arrest? Hubdub predicts redemption is in order for Madoff giving Madoff a 68% chance of pleading guilty on all charges.

Will Bernie Madoff plead guilty to all charges on or before Thursday, March 12?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Uncategorized approval rating, barack obama, basketball, bernie madoff, big east tournament, charges, Chris Brown, college football, gallup, guilty, iran, jail arrest, job approval, journalist, March Madness, ncaa, obama adminastration, politics, Rihanna Brown, Roxana Saberi

Space Shuttle Discovery was initially scheduled to launch in November 2008 to complete mission STS-119 to make the International Space Station more comfortable for its growing number of residents. Four spacewalks are scheduled for the 14-day mission as the ISS crew install the final set of power-generating solar arrays. The mission also includes replacing a failed unit for a system that converts urine to potable water.

However, ongoing problems with Discovery’s hydrogen flow valves have led to a farcical series of delayed launches in February, with proposed launches on the 19th, 22nd and 27th all being delayed to allow more time to test the troubled valves.

After the fourth launch date cancellation on the 27th, there was more to-ing and fro-ing from NASA. They initially delayed the mission indefinitely, then set a launch date of NET (not earlier than) March 12, then brought this forward to March 11.

Despite Discovery now passing a Flight Readiness Review today and being officially cleared for launch on Wednesday the 11th, predictors are yet to be inspired with confidence that Discovery will actually launch, with the ‘Other’ option that encompasses a launch on the 11th March only sitting at 87%.

It is positive to see flight and astronaut safety prioritized over tight launch schedules and the pressure of finishing ISS construction before the fleet’s planned retirement in 2010, but this leaves us with a fairly uncertain prediction market - will we see lift-off in March?

When will Space Shuttle Discovery launch?

space discovery, iss, nasa, space, space shuttle

As is often the case, there’s a lot of news coming out of the Middle East these days: plans are underway to withdraw troops from Iraq, Israel just elected a new Prime Minister, the Pope is planning a controversial May visit to Jerusalem, and so on. But once again seemingly trying to claw its way back to the top of the Middle East news piles is Iran; hardly a day goes by without some new–and often disturbing–headline from Tehran. Consider the following:

Will Iranian authorities release journalist Roxana Saberi sometime in March?

Will Iranian authorities release journalist Roxana Saberi on or before March 31st?

Just two days ago, Iran finally confirmed that US-born journalist Roxana Saberi had been arrested and was being detained. Iran’s official line is that Saberi is being held for working “illegally” in the country after her press card was revoked. Her father, however, has reported that she was arrested on charges of buying alcohol, something prohibited in the Islamic republic. Some are even speculating that Iran may consider her a spy.

Hubdub collectively feels there is currently a 62% chance Saberi will not be released by the end of this month, despite requests for them to do so.

If Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor goes into operation, when will it happen?

When will Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor go into operation?

Iran recently staged a test run ( using lead instead of uranium)of their long-delayed Bushehr nuclear reactor. Iran says the reactor, 34 years in the making, is purely for generating electricity, but many folks–namely Israel and most of the Western world–fear that Tehran plans to use the facility to create material for use in one or more nuclear weapons. That fear has prompted some to speculate whether that reactor may end up being targeted for destruction by a Western power.

Hubdubbers so far give not much chance to Bushehr going online anytime soon, as is Iran’s goal. In fact, currently 38% feel that Bushehr will not be operational at all this year due to either political setbacks, engineering difficulties, or the targeted demolition of the facility by some external military force.

Iran has release sensitive US documents via Gnutella. Will there be any others?

When will Iran release more classified or sensitive US documents via Gnutella?

It seems that a US defense contractor used his work laptop–containing sensitive (though not classified) schematics for Marine One, the Sikorsky VH-60 used by President Obama–to share personal files (music, vidoes, etc.) from home…and in doing so allowed a cybercriminal stationed in Iran to gain access to those schematics, a cybercriminal who then made those schematics available on the Gnutella file-sharing network for people everywhere.

(Adding a bit of intrigue to this story is the fact that defense contractor Lockheed-Martin currently has a multibillion-dollar contract to replace the fleet of White House helicopters, a contract which just a week ago Obama spoke of postponing. But no that the whole world knows the inner workings of the choppers, might it not just be a great time to go ahead with the new aircraft? Huh? Don’t you think?)

Hubdub players overhwlemingly feel Iran will release no further classified or sensitive documents by the end of April. What do you think?

Look for these and other Iranian stories to dominate Middle East headlines over the next few months; Iran’s holding elections in June, the Obama administration may sit down with Iran’s leaders soon, and Israel has yet to confirm or deny whether they’re running covert operations in Tehran.

Stay tuned!

–Jim Pettit (sqlman)

World, politics bushehr, iran, israel, middle east, nuclear power, roxana salberi, terrorism

Okay, college hoops fans, we’re just days away from the start of the Conference Championships followed by The Big Dance! The Big East and ACC take claim to 6 of the top 10 in rankings at this time and will be bringing plenty of excitement to their tournaments. This weekend will give us another glimpse of the upcoming action when #3 Pitt hosts #1 UConn. The Huskies will be looking to avenge one of their only two losses against the Panthers. Of course, this will be no easy task against a team that is undefeated at home. Georgetown, Florida, and Maryland have had high hopes but have been inconsistent. Each appears to be on the bubble, with much to prove for a shot to advance. So, we know who the top teams are, but what makes up the Madness of the NCAA tournament is the excitement and tradition of filling out your brackets and trying to find those upsets and Cinderella teams! How about some picks for this years tourney: VCU has established themselves as a team that is always a threat (they lead the Colonial Athletic with a 21-9 record overall); The MAAC, a 1 bid conference, which should produce Siena, a team with 3 players averaging more than 13ppg. Davidson has both tournament experience and strong shooter, Stephen Curry. Of course I can’t resist slipping in my hopes for Florida State, who could get their first tournament bid in 11 years. They’ve played well in what could be argued to be the toughest conference in college basketball and have either upset or had close calls with some of the top teams.

Having said all of this, perhaps I should include a disclaimer - or at least point out the results of a 2001 study by Edward Kaplan and Stanley Garstka of Yale Univesity: (http://mansci.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/47/3/369). Using mathematical formulas and probabilities that would make my head spin, they looked at regular season performance, rankings, Vegas odds, and other measures compared to the outcomes of past tournaments. Their findings? …..an overall prediction reliability of about 58%!! I guess this explains why it’s usually the person you least expect that ends up winning the office pool.

Hubdub has something special in store for this year’s Tournament, while we are certain we can out-predict those Yale guys and their measly 58%!!!

Sport basketball tournament, college hoops, March Madness, NCAAB

Hubdub forecasts Michael Steele the newly elected Republican party chairman has a 49% chance of accepting Stephen Colbert’s challenge to have a ‘rap off’ on national television. In my own opinion though the odds are more like 5%.

Will RNC Chair Michael Steele accept Stephen Colberts challenge to a ‘Rap off’ on his show?

Steele has been trying to broaden the GOP since becoming chairman. Trying to garner more support among African Americans and other voting blocs in the US, but is he silly enough to think rapping will get him more support?

I can’t imagine anyone is advising Steele to actually rap. It would just make him look like a joke, especially when he’s trying desperately to fight off Limbaugh lovers and the Obama administration. So the question is, why does Hubdub still give the ‘rap off’ a almost 50% chance of happening?

My best guess is that people aren’t looking at the market anymore, which means there’s easy money out there for anyone reading this blog! If there was a real chance Steele would actually rap he wouldn’t still have a 73% chance of staying on as RNC chairman, because a ‘rap off’ with Stephen Colbert doesn’t seem like something GOP members pride themselves on.

Will Michael Steele last until Nov. 2, 2010 as RNC Chairman?

politics gop, michael steele, politics, rap, rap off, rapping, republican national committee, republican party, republicans, rnc, rnc chairman, stephen colbert