As is often the case, there’s a lot of news coming out of the Middle East these days: plans are underway to withdraw troops from Iraq, Israel just elected a new Prime Minister, the Pope is planning a controversial May visit to Jerusalem, and so on. But once again seemingly trying to claw its way back to the top of the Middle East news piles is Iran; hardly a day goes by without some new–and often disturbing–headline from Tehran. Consider the following:

Will Iranian authorities release journalist Roxana Saberi sometime in March?

Will Iranian authorities release journalist Roxana Saberi on or before March 31st?

Just two days ago, Iran finally confirmed that US-born journalist Roxana Saberi had been arrested and was being detained. Iran’s official line is that Saberi is being held for working “illegally” in the country after her press card was revoked. Her father, however, has reported that she was arrested on charges of buying alcohol, something prohibited in the Islamic republic. Some are even speculating that Iran may consider her a spy.

Hubdub collectively feels there is currently a 62% chance Saberi will not be released by the end of this month, despite requests for them to do so.

If Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor goes into operation, when will it happen?

When will Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor go into operation?

Iran recently staged a test run ( using lead instead of uranium)of their long-delayed Bushehr nuclear reactor. Iran says the reactor, 34 years in the making, is purely for generating electricity, but many folks–namely Israel and most of the Western world–fear that Tehran plans to use the facility to create material for use in one or more nuclear weapons. That fear has prompted some to speculate whether that reactor may end up being targeted for destruction by a Western power.

Hubdubbers so far give not much chance to Bushehr going online anytime soon, as is Iran’s goal. In fact, currently 38% feel that Bushehr will not be operational at all this year due to either political setbacks, engineering difficulties, or the targeted demolition of the facility by some external military force.

Iran has release sensitive US documents via Gnutella. Will there be any others?

When will Iran release more classified or sensitive US documents via Gnutella?

It seems that a US defense contractor used his work laptop–containing sensitive (though not classified) schematics for Marine One, the Sikorsky VH-60 used by President Obama–to share personal files (music, vidoes, etc.) from home…and in doing so allowed a cybercriminal stationed in Iran to gain access to those schematics, a cybercriminal who then made those schematics available on the Gnutella file-sharing network for people everywhere.

(Adding a bit of intrigue to this story is the fact that defense contractor Lockheed-Martin currently has a multibillion-dollar contract to replace the fleet of White House helicopters, a contract which just a week ago Obama spoke of postponing. But no that the whole world knows the inner workings of the choppers, might it not just be a great time to go ahead with the new aircraft? Huh? Don’t you think?)

Hubdub players overhwlemingly feel Iran will release no further classified or sensitive documents by the end of April. What do you think?

Look for these and other Iranian stories to dominate Middle East headlines over the next few months; Iran’s holding elections in June, the Obama administration may sit down with Iran’s leaders soon, and Israel has yet to confirm or deny whether they’re running covert operations in Tehran.

Stay tuned!

–Jim Pettit (sqlman)

World, politics bushehr, iran, israel, middle east, nuclear power, roxana salberi, terrorism

Hubdub forecasts Michael Steele the newly elected Republican party chairman has a 49% chance of accepting Stephen Colbert’s challenge to have a ‘rap off’ on national television. In my own opinion though the odds are more like 5%.

Will RNC Chair Michael Steele accept Stephen Colberts challenge to a ‘Rap off’ on his show?

Steele has been trying to broaden the GOP since becoming chairman. Trying to garner more support among African Americans and other voting blocs in the US, but is he silly enough to think rapping will get him more support?

I can’t imagine anyone is advising Steele to actually rap. It would just make him look like a joke, especially when he’s trying desperately to fight off Limbaugh lovers and the Obama administration. So the question is, why does Hubdub still give the ‘rap off’ a almost 50% chance of happening?

My best guess is that people aren’t looking at the market anymore, which means there’s easy money out there for anyone reading this blog! If there was a real chance Steele would actually rap he wouldn’t still have a 73% chance of staying on as RNC chairman, because a ‘rap off’ with Stephen Colbert doesn’t seem like something GOP members pride themselves on.

Will Michael Steele last until Nov. 2, 2010 as RNC Chairman?

politics gop, michael steele, politics, rap, rap off, rapping, republican national committee, republican party, republicans, rnc, rnc chairman, stephen colbert

The Wall Street Journal / NBC Poll released on March 3, 2009 was the best look we have gotten since election day as to what the American people are thinking and feeling. We have as regular Americans been inundated with news coverage of the incredibly negative statistics showing the health or in this case the sickness of our economy. We have talking heads that like to now refer this to the Great Recession, as if a regular recession wasn’t bad enough for them. Every morning we are overloaded with home foreclosure news, unemployement figures, retail sales, automotive sales, bank failures and more and more and more. With this kind of endless assault on the American people one would expect the most recently released polling numbers to be sliding, granted there wasn’t much room to continue to slide after the last numbers released before election. At that time 12% of voters polled felt the country was headed in the right direction, and a whopping 78% said the country was headed in wrong direction. Just to put some numbers for comparison here, the DOW was at 9387.61 on 10/13/2008, the date last poll was released. The view was not pretty and we hadn’t seen the worse of it yet. Market continued to drop as confidence was still riding low. But something strange is in the air now, the new poll numbers show that 41% believe we are on the right track now, which we haven’t seen that high level of number since 2004. That is an increase of 29 points which is a increase of 300% from its low just 6 months ago. The number of people who believe we are on the wrong track as gone from 78% in October 2008 down to just 44%, a decrease of 34 points.
What do these numbers mean to the average working American who is struggling to pay his bills and is worrying about his kids going to college or school, not much, but it might help boost his confidence in our economy and it will help the leaders continue to get bills passed through congress. With a 60% approval rating on WSJ/NBC and a Gallup number in the mid 60’s, the American public are willing to trust this new president has a vision and has a grasp on what is needed to fix this economy. When asked how the President is doing handling economy he holds close with 56% approval on WSJ/NBC.
For our esteemed congress men and women, the numbers are showing improvement, not the same stratospheric numbers as the President, but their job approval as gone from 12% in October to 31% now, which is a number they haven’t seen since March 2007. It seems that more people are answering NOT SURE when asked about their performance, as the country waits with baited breath for Obama’s proposals to be passed through the congress.
Here are some very telling questions from the WSJ/NBC poll:
1. In looking at what President Obama is doing in terms of his leadership and plans for the country, do you feel more hopeful or more doubtful?
• More hopeful ………………………………… 67
• More doubtful ……………………………….. 28
• Mixed (VOL) ………………………………….. 4
• Not sure…………………………………………… 1

2. Do you think the Republicans in Congress have opposed President Obama’s policies and proposals more because they are standing up for their principles OR more because they are trying to gain political advantage? **
• More because they are standing up for their principles ………. 30
• More because they are trying to gain political advantage……. 56
• Some of both (VOL) ………………………………………………………. 10
• Not sure ……………………………………………………………………….. 4

3. Do you think that the recently passed economic stimulus legislation is a good idea or a bad idea? If you do not have an opinion either way, please just say so
• Good idea ……………………………………. 44
• Bad idea………………………………………. 36
• Do not have an opinion …………………. 15
• Not sure ……………………………………….. 5

As you can see from our Gallup Daily Tracking poll the President has enjoyed support ranging from 61 to 67 just this last week. As days goes by and the first 100 days are counted down, here are a few hubdub markets to keep in mind.

What will President Obama’s approval rating be on Monday March 9th, 2009?

President Obama 1st 100 days: What will be the price of Crude Oil on March 31, 2009.

business, congress, politics barack obama, congress approval, economic recovery, gallup poll, nbc poll, wall street journal poll

As the final votes came through the House and Senate this past week, the tension in Washington and throughout America was visible to all. However the stimulus package provided a rare opportunity here at Hubdub. We were presented with a market from one of our users asking How much will the Final Stimulus Bill cost. The options were spread out very evenly, under 700 billion, 700-750 Billion, 750 - 800 Billion, over 800 Billion or no deal before March 29th. The percentages were spread out incredibly well, at 10, 20, 35, 30, and 5 respectively.  The news reports were reporting a deal exceeding 800 billion during the preliminary stages of the bill, then news leaked it could dip down to 780 billion, and this is where the excitement blossomed.  We had users who seemed to take two very hardlined approaches, and those users began to get into the market deep. One of the secrets to success at Hubdub is if you bought a position at 45%, and then it went to 30%, you should love it even more. That is a hard thing to commit to when the trend seems to be going away from you.

One of the most successful users in this market is Paul (username pmk2668) who originally bought in with a 5,000 dollar wager on 750-800 billion at 47%. He believed that in order for deal to be approved, cuts to spending would have to be made, however as the days went by, all the news kept the package price at above 800 Billion. Paul was able to continue buying into the postion of 750-800 Billion at better and better odds, as the mainstream seemed to believe it would be higher. By the time the congress was ready to vote, Paul had more than 123,948 dollars in the market, with a potential windfall of $238,628 dollars. Paul even took several opportunities to cash out about $26,000 in wagers earning him about $37,000 so he could buy in with those profits at the lower percentages. This market was made possible because there was a large user base of people pumping money into what the mainstream media reported would be the 800 Billion plus number. One of my favorite quotes from Paul is that he said “I woke up one morning and thought there had been a huge error at Hubdub, I was worthy twice what I went to bed with”. What he quickly learned is that the mainstream media had finally heard the amount reached by compromise was going to be 787 Billion.  So Paul went from rags to riches in a few short days. While many Hubdubbers on the other side of the coin lost substantial amounts, many were able to pull money out on the way down to limit the loss.

It is not very often a market becomes this exciting, with fortunes won and loss as fast as the news breaks. The graph for this market is one of the most spectacular in recent history. I wonder how many of you out there would have had the nerves to let your 90% of your net worth ride on such a huge market. I know for me, I played it safe, I bought in and sold out of market a few times, earning small rewards. The final statistics on this market were over 880 predictions made, more than $500,000 in wagers placed, 77 comments, and a unique outcome, those who wagered in lost were congratulating Paul, who in his words said this “People were sending me messages and congratulatory remarks. Here I had won a ton of money and everyone appeared happy for me. I think that says a lot about those involved. The heart felt comments were almost touching enough to give the HUBDUB funds back…..I said almost! I will be giving it away sometime I am sure in my next wild prediction…..or perhaps the one after that or somewhere down the line. I am happy to encourage someone to beat me and will offer congratulations when it happens. Until then today is my day and I am trying my best to climb up the leader board.”
How much will the Final Stimulus bill Cost?

How much will the final stimulus bill cost?

politics barack obama, congress, house, senate, stimulus

This week in politics the focus has been on the Senate, with Al Franken and Roland Burris as the main actors. In the last three days though the forecasts from Hubdub on Franken and Burris have reversed. At the start of the week Hubdub was forecasting Al Franken would be seated prior to Roland Burris, but once Harry Reid and other congressional democrats met with Burris the tides changed

The two men at the center of politics this week

The lessons here are that prediction market forecasts are somewhat dependent on the news. Especially when the news is secured from a small amount of figures who regular users won’t have access to. Once Reid said Burris might ultimately get the Senate seat, on Jan. 7th, the Hubdub market drastically reversed. From Franken being seated first to Burris being seated first. A second observation is that markets on Hubdub such as the one in question, respond extremely quickly to breaking news. On Jan. 7th the big money was consistently placed on Burris being sworn in first, from the moment Reid’s meeting with Burris hit the media. This is in comparison to Jan. 6th and the early part of Jan. 7th before Reid made his comments, when Franken was forecast to be the first seated

The easiest way to understand of course is to just look at the market graph which I’ve posted below.

U.S. Senate - Who will be sworn in first? Roland Burris or Al Franken?

politics al franken, harry reid, media, politics, prediction markets, roland burris, senate