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Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week

July 7th, 2009

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics

Sarah Palin is taking a break from politics or so we’ve been told, but is she really gone? If the rumors of a possible 2012 presidential run are true, Palin will need to head South to start campaigning. How likely is a move south? For now it’s too close to call.

Entertainment

David Letterman and Sarah Palin have a tumultuous past. With new ammunition coming from the Palin camp, is a new war of words about to begin? There’s at least a 30% chance Letterman refers to her 3 times this week in his monologue.

As the week goes on the chances of someone getting into trouble due to Michael Jackson’s death seem to be rising. There’s now a 63% chance a medical professional is disciplined in connection with Jackson’s death.

Sports

The Baseball All Star game is coming up soon, and Hubdub has the odds. The American League has 53% of winning, while the National League has a 33% chance, and the chance of a tie is 11%.

Business

The recent news of higher than expected unemployment rates in the US wasn’t good news for the flailing economy. What about those failing banks though? Well for July there’s only a 12% chance no banks fail…

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Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week

June 29th, 2009

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Entertainment
Michael Jackson’s untimely death last week left the world in mourning or at least most of it. Bin Laden wasn’t a fan. Despite countless plastic surgery operations and possible underlying health conditions his death at 50 is still a mystery, especially to his family. Hubdubbers are predicting there’s a 42% chance Jackon’s death was due to drug use.

Jackson was somewhat eccentric to say the least, so it’s quite a surprise to see Hubdub forecasting Jackson is most likely to be laid to rest the old fashion way. Although there still is a 8% chance he’s put in Cryogenic Suspension and a 3% chance he’s displayed in the same way Lenin is.

The initial conspiratorial reports citing Michael Jackson’s doctor as a possible suspect seem to have dissipated, as there’s now only a 8% chance the doctor will be charged in relation to Jackson’s death.

Business
Not much of a surprise here, but the forecast is worth a notice. International oil companies from the United States are 93% likely to be majority share holders in Iraqi oil fields. War for oil anyone?

Politics

Wives of unfaithful politicians often seem to enter the same profession of their unfaithful husbands. Hillary Clinton? Despite that, don’t bet on Mark Sanford’s wife entering politics anytime soon.

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

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Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week

June 15th, 2009

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics
Finally Obama’s health care plan is taking shape, and with that significant opposition on both sides of the aisle. After all everyone loves government spending until they find out they’re footing the bill. This weeks gallup poll will be a good measure of how well Obama is selling the country on a new health care plan. Hubdub forecasts a low sixties approval rating.

Business
Gas prices are going up day by day and summer has just begun. How high does Hubdub forecast them to go? At least as high as $2.95 is 21% likely and higher than $3.00 is 32% likely.

World
Events in Iran have taken a turn for the worst since Friday, protests, repression and they even shutdown Twitter! Now thankfully the Iranian Guardian Council has been asked to investigate the elections, although Hubdub doesn’t think it will do any good. There’s only a 16% chance the Council cancels the election results.

Sports
The US Open is in Bethpage, Long Island this week and Hubdub has the markets to cover this golfing extravaganza. There’s so many players in the tournament that you’ll have to forecast by your player of choices last name.

Entertainment
Susan Boyle’s still popular although her 15 minutes are probably fading. Is she still popular enough to sing at the White House though? Don’t bet on it, there’s an 84% chance she doesn’t sing there within the next two weeks.

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

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Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week

June 8th, 2009

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.
World
The complete tragedy of Air France Flight 447 may never be known, but with some luck those tasked with finding the remains of the plane and its passengers may discover the coveted ‘black box.’ It won’t be easy though, and within the working deadline for finding the ‘black box,’ Hubdub has the chances of recovery at only 44%.

Sport
The most anticipated sporting event this week is still the ongoing NBA playoffs. Last week the Lakers had only a even chance of wining compared to the Orlando Magic, this week though Hubdubbers make it a surefire bet it’s the Lakers for the win.

Politics

For anyone who thought British politics was boring and mundane, the recent expenses scandal in the UK is certainly creating a right fuss… Will it bring down Gordon Brown though? Well the expenses scandal and Brown’s staggering loss in recent elections in the UK, has his chances of being forced out in 2009 as high as 62% as of now.

Entertainment
David Carradine’s tragic death last week under ‘mysterious’ circumstances was shocking. His odd demise whether it was suicide or accidental, perhaps was caused by drugs? Hubdubber’s seem to think drugs a quite likely cause. There’s a 72% chance a autopsy shows drugs were in Carradine’s system.

This weekend three main movies are vying for contention at the box office, Up, The Hangover and The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3. Up has already received critical acclaim, but the comedy The Hangover is gaining ground this week. As of now Up though still seems to the be the likely winner at the box office.

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

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Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week

May 26th, 2009

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Sports
The NBA championship’s are in two weeks, and with the playoff games coming to a end, one team is the front runner. The Cleveland Cavaliers have a 50% chance of winning the championships, while the LA Lakers have a 24%, the Orlando Magic have the lowest chance of winning at 20%.

Science
Just one look at the Hubdub odds on where the Swine Flu pandemic alert level is going to go, and it’s easy to see no one truly knows what will happen. There’s a 35% chance the pandemic alert goes up to 6 and a 32% chance it goes down to 4 within 5 weeks.

Business
Oil has gone up to $60 a barrel, but will it continue to rise? Although there’s 39% odds the price rises above $65 a barrel, the highest odds are 47% for no change before July.

Entertainment
The MTV Movie Awards are in 6 days, and one of the most entertaining awards is sure to be ‘Best Kiss.’ This year Kristen Stewart & Robert Pattinson’s kiss in Twilight seems to be the no-brainer. Hubdubbers give the kiss a 71%  chance of being selected.

World
With North Korea’s announced nuclear test tensions are high on the Korean peninsula and throughout Asia. But will the test have any lasting repercussions on peace talks? For now it doesn’t look like it. Hubdub forecasts North Korean Nuclear disarmament talks beginning in 2009 are likely.

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Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week

May 19th, 2009

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics
Nancy Pelosi the speaker of the house has been in a bit of trouble these past few weeks. First she didn’t know anything about torture, and then she kind of knew a bit about torture. For now the controversy has subsided, and Nancy’s chances of remaining speaker throughout 2009 are at 81%.

World
There’s been a lot of apologizing since Barack Obama came to office. There’s nothing wrong with saying sorry for past mistakes, but at some point we’ve got to focus on the future.

Business
With GM restructuring under way, the ways of old are slowly disappearing. GM already axed the Pontiac brand, local car dealers are shutting down, and now rumors of a possible axing of the Saturn brand are in the wind. Saturn seems somewhat safe though, it has a 43% chance of being sold or becoming independent and a 36% chance of being axed.

Entertainment
The two major SciFi films for May are Star Trek and Terminator: Salvation. With Star Trek already out and raking in the cash, now it’s Terminator’s turn. In it’s opening week Hubdub forecasts the movie is likely to make over $101 million.

Sport
In sport this week the major NBA playoff series is between the #1 seed LA Lakers (65-17) and the #2 seed Denver Nuggets (54-28). The Lakers seem the front runners for the match up this week, being the #1 seed.

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

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American Idol: The final two

May 14th, 2009

As we face the end of season eight, I find myself looking back. I knew from the first semi-final round that Kris Allen would be my favorite contestant and week after week he has performed brilliantly. Conventional wisdom suggests that Adam will carry the finale easily, however there are hints that this contest may be a little closer than many suspect. Ryan reported that only 1 million votes separated Adam and Kris in the penultimate episode and now during the finale the preponderance of Danny’s supporters are likely to switch to Kris. Unless Adam pulls out another “Mad World” level performance, I expect the odds to tighten up again before the finale.

But winning the competition is just part of the story.  Ruben Studdard beat out Clay Aiken in season 2 and yet Clay has outsold him 2 to 1…  Chris Daughtry came in fourth in his season and is the 4th most successful Idol ever…  Some Idols just don’t make albums that anyone is interested in buying (*cough* Taylor Hicks *cough*). So, even assuming Adam wins, will the audience for his album be as big as Kris’s easy adult alternative sound? Or Allison’s “rocker chick”? Or Danny’s (um what’s his sound again?)? The unintentional release of the iTunes popularity bars for the contestants might suggest that Adam will win this competition hands down, but it’s hard to know exactly how appealing his actual album will be to fans and non-Idol consumers.

No matter who wins on Wednesday night, I’m looking forward to a great night of singing on Tuesday by two of the best singers in the competition (sorry you couldn’t join in Allison). Hopefully, there will be some fun guest stars (is Jason Mraz free??) and some chuckles at the expense of some truly awful performers (Tatiana/Norman Gentle duet?). But at the end of the day, its clear that both Adam and Kris have successful albums in their future and I know I’ll be buying Kris’ the day it comes out!

All the American Idol markets

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Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week

May 4th, 2009

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics
Undoubtedly the biggest news coming out of Washington last week was the retirement of  Justice Souter. As the dust settles, the focus is now on who will replace him. A smart trader wouldn’t forecast anyone just yet. That said though Sonia Sotomayor is getting a surprising amount of activity, now given a 42% chance of replacing Souter.

Science
Apparently the end isn’t nye, which is a bummer since for the last week I thought the zombie apocalypse might be upon us, and we all know how cool those look! There’s still a chance we face imminent annihilation though! Hubdubbers give the Swine Flu alert level rasing to 6 a 62% chance. Alert level 6 means we’re in a pandemic.

Entertainment
Yes that’s right American Idol will soon be over, and whatever your feeling about the show in general it has to be said it’s developing into a American Institution. This season Hubdub is forecasting Adam and Danny have a 79% chance of being the last two contestants standing.

Sport
This week the main NBA playoff game is between the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic. Who will win? Hubdub says the current front-runner is Boston and the forecast is that they’re likely to win in 6 games.

World

Don’t hate the player hate the game! Or in bad Italian Non odiare il giocatore odia il gioco. Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s Prime Minister  is on the prowl for a ‘new thing,’ after his wife decided the 71 year-old’s flirtatious eye was too much. Currently Berlusconi, known for his young taste is 29% likely to next marry a 30 to 39 year-old.

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

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Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week

April 20th, 2009

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

World
Roxana Saberi the Iranian-American journalist convicted in Iran of espionage has launched an appeal in a last ditch effort to get out of an 8 year sentence handed down last week. Although the trial and conviction are seen as a farce by many in the West, Hubdubbers doubt Saberi’s appeal will work, only giving it a 36% chance of success.

Politics
Cuba has been dominating the news these past few weeks, but how can we measure a softening in Cuban-American relations? One thing observers and the Obama administration are looking at is whether Cuba will release any political prisoners. Hubdub forecasts by July 1st there’s a 66% chance no political prisoners have yet been released.

Business
At the start of the auto bailout a merger between Italian Fiat and American Chrysler looked like a no-brainer. Recent problems with debt though have left the prospects of a merger in murky waters. Now there’s only a 50% chance the merger goes through before the start of June.

Sports
The NBA playoffs have arrived, and next week in the first round the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat face off. In the seven game series Miami currently has the highest chances of pulling off a win, but the margins are very, very close!

Entertainment

In May flurries of Blockbuster movies start hitting theaters. Unfortunately my hopes that the new Star Trek would crush any competition seem to have been dashed. Hubdub gives X-Men Origins: Wolverine a 68% chance of having the highest grossing open weekend. Honestly Spock is so much more of a money maker than Wolverine…

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

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Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week

April 14th, 2009

Politics

In the Minnesota Senate race the legal battling between Republican Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken doesn’t seem to have an end in sight. Coleman again plans to appeal a court decision granting Franken the senate seat, but when does Hubdub think Minnesota will finally have its result? Hubdubbers think the new Minnesota Senator will most likely take his seat this month or next.

World
Stepped up Naval patrols in the waters off Somalia haven’t done enough to deter pirates from attempting piracy in the Gulf of Aden, but what will? Some suggest military operations against pirate land bases, but those types of operations could be costly, and for now there’s only a 29% that Somali land bases may be attacked by June 1st.

Technology
First it was using Facebook to show you had thousands of ‘friends,’ by adding as many people to your friends list. Now though it’s followers on Twitter instead of friends on Facebook. So far CNN has the most followers followed closely by Britney Spears. Britney though is most likely to get a million followers first with a 49% chance of getting to a million compared to CNN’s 32% chance.

General
The Big One is coming! Or is it? Every year we hear about how this might be the year for San Francisco’s big quake, and every year it doesn’t happen causing millions to become more complacent with living on a ticking time bomb. Will it happen anytime soon? Nope says Hubdub forecasting it’s 56% likely only something weaker than a 5 on the Richter scale happens anytime soon.

Sports

The NFL draft is coming and the first picks for running back are most likely to be Knowshon Moreno or Chris Wells. Hubdubbers though are putting their bets on Moreno as the first running back to be picked. He has a pretty high chance of 60% according to Hubdub right now.

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

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