Politics

In the Minnesota Senate race the legal battling between Republican Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken doesn’t seem to have an end in sight. Coleman again plans to appeal a court decision granting Franken the senate seat, but when does Hubdub think Minnesota will finally have its result? Hubdubbers think the new Minnesota Senator will most likely take his seat this month or next.

When will the new Minnesota Senator take his seat?

World
Stepped up Naval patrols in the waters off Somalia haven’t done enough to deter pirates from attempting piracy in the Gulf of Aden, but what will? Some suggest military operations against pirate land bases, but those types of operations could be costly, and for now there’s only a 29% that Somali land bases may be attacked by June 1st.

Will the US military attack any Somali Pirates land bases before June 1, 2009?

Technology
First it was using Facebook to show you had thousands of ‘friends,’ by adding as many people to your friends list. Now though it’s followers on Twitter instead of friends on Facebook. So far CNN has the most followers followed closely by Britney Spears. Britney though is most likely to get a million followers first with a 49% chance of getting to a million compared to CNN’s 32% chance.

Who will be first to get 1 million ‘Followers’ on Twitter?

General
The Big One is coming! Or is it? Every year we hear about how this might be the year for San Francisco’s big quake, and every year it doesn’t happen causing millions to become more complacent with living on a ticking time bomb. Will it happen anytime soon? Nope says Hubdub forecasting it’s 56% likely only something weaker than a 5 on the Richter scale happens anytime soon.

Will the Big One hit San Francisco? (hit with a significant Earthquake soon?)

Sports

The NFL draft is coming and the first picks for running back are most likely to be Knowshon Moreno or Chris Wells. Hubdubbers though are putting their bets on Moreno as the first running back to be picked. He has a pretty high chance of 60% according to Hubdub right now.

Who will be the first running back selected in the 2009 NFL Draft?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Uncategorized 1 million followers, al franken, britney spears, Chris Wells, cnn breaking news, Democrat, Knowshon Moreno, land bases, million followers, Minnesota, national footbal league, nfl draft, Norm Coleman, piracy, pirates, Republican, running back, san francisco, seat, senate, somalia, the big one, twitter followers

This week in politics the focus has been on the Senate, with Al Franken and Roland Burris as the main actors. In the last three days though the forecasts from Hubdub on Franken and Burris have reversed. At the start of the week Hubdub was forecasting Al Franken would be seated prior to Roland Burris, but once Harry Reid and other congressional democrats met with Burris the tides changed

The two men at the center of politics this week

The lessons here are that prediction market forecasts are somewhat dependent on the news. Especially when the news is secured from a small amount of figures who regular users won’t have access to. Once Reid said Burris might ultimately get the Senate seat, on Jan. 7th, the Hubdub market drastically reversed. From Franken being seated first to Burris being seated first. A second observation is that markets on Hubdub such as the one in question, respond extremely quickly to breaking news. On Jan. 7th the big money was consistently placed on Burris being sworn in first, from the moment Reid’s meeting with Burris hit the media. This is in comparison to Jan. 6th and the early part of Jan. 7th before Reid made his comments, when Franken was forecast to be the first seated

The easiest way to understand of course is to just look at the market graph which I’ve posted below.

U.S. Senate - Who will be sworn in first? Roland Burris or Al Franken?

politics al franken, harry reid, media, politics, prediction markets, roland burris, senate