Secrets to success - US Box Office
One of my favorite things to track on Hubdub are the movie markets. We have weekly questions about what will be the #1 film and how much each of the new releases will make… After a year, I’ve learned some tricks to help in these predictions and (almost) always come out comfortably ahead between my various bets. Hopefully some of these ideas will help educate you to the wide world of Box Office predictions.
#1 Listen to the other crowds: There are other online prediction markets focused exclusively on movies. Some of them (like Hollywood Stock Exchange) have been around a long time and these people have a definite eye for movies. Their estimates tend to be fairly close and can serve as a good first guess to get you in the ballpark, although HSX is a little confusing to get the hang of at first. Take a look at their help areas to get acquainted.
BoxOfficeMojo’s Derby Hollywood Stock Exchange
#2 Check the ratings: With a number of notable exceptions, R-rated movies struggle to be major box office hits. Teens are major movie goers, so anything they’re shut out of, will likely not do as well.
#3 Listen to the critics: Rottentomatoes is a fantastic site that aggretages critics’ reviews. A movie that’s coming in with a ratings under 30% is unlikely to be a huge box office hit (obvious exception, Paul Blart!).
#4 Check the national weather forecast. Is half the country covered in a major snow storm? People won’t shovel out to go see a movie. Is it the first nice weekend of spring? Most people would rather spend it outside. On the other hand the cold, rainy days of winter and the hot scorching days of summer are ideal!
#5 Listen to the insiders: Those in the industry have access to tracking data that isn’t available to us peons. As the weekend approaches, the data gets more and more reliable, making insider predictions (generally) pretty accurate. The estimates are generally released on Thursday night/Friday morning, so in some cases the information may be too late for profitable betting, but it never hurts to have more information before making the big bets.
#6 Go with your gut: After importing all that data, its important to include a human factor. Do you think it looks like the worst movie ever made? Then others will likely feel the same (again, notable exception: Paul Blart!). If your entire office is buzzing about a movie, there’s a good chance other offices are buzzing too. So use your gut and start making some box office predictions.
