Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics
At Hubdub we do like predicting the outcomes of polls. So it’s no surprise that a market on the Real Clear Politics Polling Average for Obama’s approval rating is getting some action. The outcome of the G20 Summit this week is sure to affect Obama’s polling numbers, currently at 61%. Hubdub forecasts by weeks end Obama’s RCP polling is over 60.5%

RCP Poll Average: President Obama Job Approval - O/U 60.5% on Saturday, April 4th?

World
North Korea always loves being the center of attention, and now they plan to launch a ballistic missile loaded with a communications satellite, but is it actually a communications satellite? Japan has doubts and has threatened to shoot it down. According to Hubdub a Japanese shoot down is unlikely, with only a 8% chance it happens.

Will Japan shoot down North Korea’s missile?

Business
The US unemployment rate for February was 8.1%, the highest since 1983. The upwards trend isn’t forecast to stop anytime soon either. For March Hubdubbers predict the US unemployment rate will certainly trump 8.1%. How bad will it be? The most likely rate for March is 8.5%.

What will the US unemployment rate be for March 2009?

Sports
We’re finally down to the final four of March Madness this week. The most anticipated game is going to be the University of Connecticut Huskies (31-4) going up against the Michigan State Spartans (29-6). From the Hubdub market it certainly looks as if the Huskies are the front runners, with a 66% chance of defeating the Spartans.

Final Four - #1 UConn vs #2 Michigan State. Who will win?

Technology

The Conficker worm is set to get a major update on April 1st. The virus has infected thousands upon thousands of corporate networks all over the world, but it hasn’t yet been activated. Whatever happens on April fools day, the designer or designers of the Conficker worm are being hunted. Will they ever get caught? For 2009 it seems unlikely.

When will the creator of the Conficker Worm be caught?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

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Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Business
Hubdub’s holding to its forecast that by April 1st the DJIA will have passed below the 7,000 mark, giving it 97% certainty. May the Dow rest in peace…

Dow - Up or down before April 1? Which comes first, 7000 or 8000?

Gasoline prices have been fluctuating all month and in a economy where every penny counts, higher or lower prices can make or break individuals. By next Sunday Hubdub is forecasting the nationwide average for regular unleaded will be $1.950 - 1.974.

What will be the AAA average price for regular unleaded gasoline in the US on Sunday, March 8th?

Politics
The Republican party still has allot of soul searching to do these days. Bobby ‘leave it beaver’ Jindal didn’t have the best opening performance on the national stage last week. Probably one of the reasons why Hubdub forecasts Mitt Romney as the GOP front runner for 2012 with a 52% chance of winning the next Republican Presidential straw poll.

Who will win the next Republican Presidential straw poll?

Entertainment
American Idol is bound to be a treat this week. So far 2 out of 6 women have been chosen as finalists, with the semi-finals this week though how many women altogether will get the nod? Hubdub forecasts there’s a 49% chance that of the 12 finalists, 5 will be women. For all the American Idol markets we have make sure to go to our tags page here.

American Idol: How many women in the top 12?

Sport

Sad news in the world of sports this week. Detroit Lions defensive end Corey Smith, and Oakland Raiders linebacker Marquis Cooper are both feared lost at sea with others off the Florida coast. The coast guard is searching the 750 square-mile area but hasn’t yet turned up anything. Unfortunately Hubdub forecasts there’s a 60% chance the two won’t be found by this Saturday.

When will the NFL players lost at sea be found?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

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Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics

One phrase epitomizes Barack Obama and his call to arms, ‘Yes We Can.’ Throughout the election he repeated it, but with election over will Obama seek to reuse ‘Yes We Can’ at the inauguration? Hubdub predicts the answer is no. By 54% Hubdubbers put their money on Obama not mentioning the phrase at all.

Presidential Inauguration: How many times will President Obama use the phrase “Yes We Can”?

World

Analysts believe Israel is not only sending a message to Hamas in Gaza but to Washington, and more specifically Barack Obama. It’s thought Israel wants to do as much damage to Hamas, before Obama comes to power. For now though, at least to Hubdubbers it’s unclear if the conflict in Gaza will even reach a cessation before Obama is inaugurated.

Will Israel cease fire in the current Gaza conflict before Obama is sworn in as President

Entertainment

Gran Torino killed at the box office  last weekend, making over $20 million dollars. Is their Oscar potential for Eastwood though? The movie was snubbed by the Golden Globes, but Hubdubbers see redemption in its  future, forecasting Clint Eastwood has a 67% chance of being nominated for best actor for his role in the movie.

Oscar Buzz: Will Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino) be nominated for Best Actor?

The Golden Globes accidentally posted a win for Anne Hathaway4 days early, so it seems likely she’s a safe bet for an Oscar nod. She does however, face the embarrassing release of Bride Wars at the same time that the Academy is trying to decide if she’s Best Actress material. Certainly not all publicity is good publicity.

Oscar Buzz: Will Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married) be nominated for Best Actress?

Sports

The Philadelphia Eagles had a upset win over the Giants this Saturday, at least for this New York fan. Now as the Eagles head to the NFC Championship Game they’re no longer the underdogs at Hubdub. We’re forecasting they win against the Arizona Cardinals. Giving them a 68% chance of victory.

NFC Championship - Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals - Who will win?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

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Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics

Damon Weaver a 5th grader may be small but he packs a punch after interviewing Caroline Kennedy and Joe Biden. Can he get to the top of the food chain though? Sadly Hubdub doubts Damon will get his Obama interview, only giving him a 21% chance.

Will the 5th grader, aspiring journalist get his Obama interview?

This week is shaping up to be a big one in the realm of politics. You have the Minnesota Senate race, the Roland Buris controversy and much more. The Richardson dropout due to a investigation though came to many as a surprise. Will he actually be indicted? It doesn’t look likely, Hubdub gives Richardson only a 31% chance of indictment.

Will a Federal Grand Jury indict Governor Bill Richardson before March 1, 2009?

World News

The Israeli operations in Gaza are in no way winding down, in fact from most reports it seems the incursion is widening. But with mounting international pressure and civilian casualties when will Israel withdraw? Hubdubbers think by Jan. 19th the ground operations will have ceased.

Israeli army begins the invasion of Gaza. When will they withdraw the forces ?

College Football

The Florida Gators have a strong and championship tested team, and for their hard work they’re the favorites. Having a 56% chance of winning this years BCS National Championship Game, at time of writing. Their opponents on the other hand the Oklahoma Sooners have had a troubled ride up to this point.

BCS National Championship Game - Oklahoma vs Florida - Which team will win?

The Oscars

WallE and The Dark Knight are vying for the last nomination spot for best picture. So far The Dark Knight seems to be the favorite, but many analysts think WallE may have the edge. Nominations are announced on Jan. 22nd, and for now Hubdub isn’t betting on WallE getting the nomination.

Oscar Buzz: Will WallE be nominated for Best Picture?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Uncategorized Academy Awards, barack obama, bcs national championship game, Bill Richardson, college football, damon weaver, Florida Gators, forecast, gaza, hamas, indictment, israel, Oklahoma sooners, Oscars, walle, withdraw

Nominees for the Oscars are going to be announced on January 22nd, but the speculation has already been simmering for quite awhile now. Much of the speculation has surrounded Heath Ledger and possible nomination as a last hurrah for his brilliant but short lived career.

At Hubdub we’re forecasting Ledger will win an Oscar for his role as the Joker. At time of writing he stands a 65% chance of winning an Oscar. The Dark Knight has a 59% chance of being nominated for Best Picture at time of writing as well.

Will Heath Ledger win an Oscar in 2009 for his role as the Joker in Dark Knight?

Oscar Buzz: Will ‘Dark Knight’ be nominated for Best Picture?

Usually commercial successes at the box office don’t make waves at the Oscars. I myself doubt Ledger will win an Oscar. Although his acting was superb, it’s extremely rare for dead actors to receive awards and I can’t stop thinking that our Hubdub forecast may be users predicting with their hearts instead of their brains. I’ve put H$300 on Ledger not getting a Oscar, anyone with me?

More typical Oscar movies such as The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Milk and Slumdog Millionaire are poised to be nominated for Best Picture, with all three being given an above 80% chance of being nominated by Hubdubbers.

Stay tuned for a more in depth blog post from our resident entertainment category editor at Hubdub, Jenni, in the next week.

Uncategorized Academy Awards, Best Picture, forecast, Heath Ledger, Milk, oscar nominations, Oscars, predictions, Slumdog Millionaire, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight