Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics
At Hubdub we do like predicting the outcomes of polls. So it’s no surprise that a market on the Real Clear Politics Polling Average for Obama’s approval rating is getting some action. The outcome of the G20 Summit this week is sure to affect Obama’s polling numbers, currently at 61%. Hubdub forecasts by weeks end Obama’s RCP polling is over 60.5%

RCP Poll Average: President Obama Job Approval - O/U 60.5% on Saturday, April 4th?

World
North Korea always loves being the center of attention, and now they plan to launch a ballistic missile loaded with a communications satellite, but is it actually a communications satellite? Japan has doubts and has threatened to shoot it down. According to Hubdub a Japanese shoot down is unlikely, with only a 8% chance it happens.

Will Japan shoot down North Korea’s missile?

Business
The US unemployment rate for February was 8.1%, the highest since 1983. The upwards trend isn’t forecast to stop anytime soon either. For March Hubdubbers predict the US unemployment rate will certainly trump 8.1%. How bad will it be? The most likely rate for March is 8.5%.

What will the US unemployment rate be for March 2009?

Sports
We’re finally down to the final four of March Madness this week. The most anticipated game is going to be the University of Connecticut Huskies (31-4) going up against the Michigan State Spartans (29-6). From the Hubdub market it certainly looks as if the Huskies are the front runners, with a 66% chance of defeating the Spartans.

Final Four - #1 UConn vs #2 Michigan State. Who will win?

Technology

The Conficker worm is set to get a major update on April 1st. The virus has infected thousands upon thousands of corporate networks all over the world, but it hasn’t yet been activated. Whatever happens on April fools day, the designer or designers of the Conficker worm are being hunted. Will they ever get caught? For 2009 it seems unlikely.

When will the creator of the Conficker Worm be caught?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Uncategorized approval rating, april fools day, ballistic missile, barack obama, Conficker, Conficker worm, economic recovery, financial crisis, forecast, g20, hacker, hubdub, japan, job approval, march, March Madness, Michigan State Spartans, missile, north korea, predict, Prediction, rate, rcp, real clear politics, recession, shoot down, unemployment, united states, University of Connecticut Huskies, virus

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics
Tim Geithner has been getting  a unfair rap for his desperate attempts to fix our ailing economy. I mean he is kind of running a one man show at the Treasury department. Undoubtedly this week he’ll be used again as a political punching bag, but will the complaints and criticisms lead to anything? Hubdubbers doubt it giving Geithner only a 20% chance of leaving his post by 2010.

Will Tim Geithner depart as Secretary of the Treasury before midnight on 31 Dec 2009?

President Obama has a primetime press conference this week to reiterate his plans for the federal budget this year. It won’t all be numbers and graphs though, with Hubdub forecasting President Obama will talk about his NCAA Basketball picks during the press conference.

President Obama Primetime Press Conf. 3/24/09: Will he be asked about his NCAA Basketball picks?

Business
The Dow’s been having some pretty good days these past few weeks. So much so that before March 31st Hubdubbers predict there’s a 56% chance that the Dow closes above 7500.

Dow - Up or down ? Which comes first, 6500 or 7500?

Sports
The NCAAB tournament continues this week, and one of the major games to watch will be when Oklahoma state goes against Syracuse on Friday. The game is bound to be close but right now Oklahoma has edged up against Syracuse, with a 52% chance of winning on Friday.

NCAAB Tournament - #2 Oklahoma vs #3 Syracuse. Who will win?

Entertainment

This week American Idol heads to Detroit where contestants will compete in the category of Motown music. Who’s likely to get the least support? Hubdub forecasts Michael Sarver has the highest chance of getting the fewest votes this week.

Who will have the fewest votes on American Idol this week?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Hubdub Top 5 american idol, barack obama, basketball, djia, dow, dow jones industrial average, economy, financial crisis, hubdub, March Madness, michael sarver, ncaa, NCAAB, Oklahoma, president obama, primetime press conference, secretary of the treasury, Syracuse, Tim Geithner, tournament, treasury department

Well the Oscars have come and gone and although most pundits are chattering about Slumdog’s amazing 8 wins and Hugh Jackman’s dulcet tones, I’m more impressed by Hubdub’s amazing success.

Out of the major races, we got EVERY SINGLE ONE RIGHT. We were also the only major prediction exchange to correctly predict the Best Actor race (Betfair, HSX, InTrade, Newsfutures and even Nate Silver all gave the gold to Mickey Rourke). Also, in five of the big 6 races, we showed higher confidence than InTrade predictors.

From the complete 24 award lineup, we nailed 19, generally by impressive condifence margins. Check out all of our settled markets here.

Not only have Hubdubbers had a successful night, each of my personal Oscar predictions were correct and I added another 40 thousand Hubbucks to my coffers. Award season is now finally behind us, but American Idol is just getting started!

Uncategorized hubdub, Oscars

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics
Although Hubdub forecasts the Stimulus package will pass the Senate, exactly how much bi-partisan support it will have is still unclear. With a 45% chance Hubdub forecasts at least 2-3 Republicans vote to approve the package when it comes to a vote.

How many Republican Senators will vote to approve the current $800b + stimulus bill?

World
It seems a new wave of protesting is sweeping across the land, shoe throwing. First former President Bush and now Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. With so many leaders out there and just as many people angry at them, another country’s leader is bound to be ‘attacked.’ Currently Hubdub forecasts within a year it happens again.

Will there be a new incident of a shoe thrown at a country’s leader?

Business
Almost 600,000 American jobs were lost in January, raising unemployment levels to 7.6%. A sign many economists say points to a deepening crisis, with even worse months ahead. Sadly Hubdub has no good news yet, forecasting February sees unemployment rising to 8%.

What will the US unemployment rate be for February 2009?

Sports
In February Sports Illustrated releases their 2009 Swimsuit issue. Brooklyn Decker is the front runner for cover model with a 37% chance. If you’d like to drool over what you can’t ever have, click on the market for ‘images.’ I won’t lie these women are very, very beautiful and lets not kid ourselves, sex sells.

Who will be the cover model of Sports Illustrated’s swimsuit edition 2009?

Science
Volcanic eruptions occur allot more often then some think. This February we may see the natural beauty of one from Mount Redoubt, located near Alaska’s largest city. Getting forecasts on exactly when she’ll blow her top, as you can tell by the graph isn’t easy though. For now according to Hubdub there’s only a 21% chance Mount Redoubt erupts before February 15th.

Will Mount Redoubt erupt before Feb. 15/09?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Hubdub Top 5 alaska, barack obama, Brooklyn Decker, business, democrats, financial crisis, hubdub, mount redoubt, politics, republicans, senate, shoe, Sports Illustrated, stimulus, stimulus package, swimsuit issue, throw, unemployment, volcano, wen jiabao

One of my favorite things to track on Hubdub are the movie markets. We have weekly questions about what will be the #1 film and how much each of the new releases will make… After a year, I’ve learned some tricks to help in these predictions and (almost) always come out comfortably ahead between my various bets.   Hopefully some of these ideas will help educate you to the wide world of Box Office predictions.

#1 Listen to the other crowds: There are other online prediction markets focused exclusively on movies. Some of them (like Hollywood Stock Exchange) have been around a long time and these people have a definite eye for movies. Their estimates tend to be fairly close and can serve as a good first guess to get you in the ballpark, although HSX is a little confusing to get the hang of at first. Take a look at their help areas to get acquainted.

BoxOfficeMojo’s Derby      Hollywood Stock Exchange

#2 Check the ratings:  With a number of notable exceptions, R-rated movies struggle to be major box office hits. Teens are major movie goers, so anything they’re shut out of, will likely not do as well. 

#3 Listen to the critics:   Rottentomatoes is a fantastic site that aggretages critics’ reviews. A movie that’s coming in with a ratings under 30% is unlikely to be a huge box office hit (obvious exception, Paul Blart!).

Rotten Tomatoes

#4  Check the national weather forecast.  Is half the country covered in a major snow storm? People won’t shovel out to go see a movie. Is it the first nice weekend of spring? Most people would rather spend it outside.  On the other hand the cold, rainy days of winter and the hot scorching days of summer are ideal!

#5 Listen to the insiders: Those in the industry have access to tracking data that isn’t available to us peons. As the weekend approaches, the data gets more and more reliable, making insider predictions (generally) pretty accurate.  The estimates are generally released on Thursday night/Friday morning, so in some cases the information may be too late for profitable betting, but it never hurts to have more information before making the big bets.

Steve Mason      Cinematical

#6 Go with your gut: After importing all that data, its important to include a human factor. Do you think it looks like the worst movie ever made? Then others will likely feel the same (again, notable exception: Paul Blart!).  If your entire office is buzzing about a movie, there’s a good chance other offices are buzzing too.  So use your gut and start making some box office predictions.

Make some predictions!

Uncategorized box office, entertainment, hubdub

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Business
Although optimism still surrounds the new President, that optimism hasn’t reached the financial markets. In fact it seems the opposite is happening. Within the first 100 days Hubdub forecasts there’s a above 50% chance that the DJIA will have a one-day drop of 6%. Which at current measures would be a drop of 480 points in a day!

Will the DJIA have a one-day drop of 6% or more during Obama’s first 100 days as president?

Politics
This week with the new Stimulus package hitting the Senate floor, and the markets still in disarray, the Presidents path is fraught with danger. Despite the danger though Hubdub forecasts Obama has a 43% chance of retaining a 66% - 67% approval rating next Monday.

What will President Obama’s approval rating be on Monday February 9, 2009?

Entertainment
The 51st Grammy Awards will be on Feb. 8 in Los Angeles. The biggest award of the night is certain to be song of the year. Coldplay with Viva La Vida are trading as the main favorites with a 63% chance, trading second is American Boy from Estelle Feat and Kanye West trading at 17%.

Grammy Awards ‘09: Song of the Year

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards or simply the BAFTA’s are also being announced on February 8th. With the Oscars coming up the BAFTA’s should be a sign of things to come. Sean Penn is in the lead for Best Actor in both the Oscar’s and the BAFTA’s with an above 65% chance.

BAFTA: Who Will Win Best Actor?

World
The new Pope has had a tough time convincing critics he’s all for religious equality. First he caused outrage with Muslims and now the pardoning of a Holocaust denying bishop has got the Jewish community in a uproar. How does Hubdub forecast the Pope will deal with the situation? Silence is golden…

The Pope pardoned a Holocaust denial bishop - How will he respond to critics?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Hubdub Top 5 approval rating, BAFTA, barack obama, best actor, coldplay, djia, dow jones industrial average, entertainment, financial crisis, first 100 days, gallup, grammy awards, holocaust, hubdub, jewish, Oscars, sean penn, song of the year, the pope, viva la vida

On Hubdub we spend our time making predictions about the future. Successful Hubdubbers know that making consistently accurate predictions requires researching them in detail (and then making predictions on only those questions). Over the past 11 months I’ve spoken to many of our top users and always been amazingly impressed at the depth of knowledge that backs up their predictions. Therefore we decided to launch News Pundits to let some of our top users share their thoughts more widely.

Only Hubdubbers with a consistent track record of accuracy will be invited to post about subjects of their expertise. Therefore readers of this blog can rest assured that the predictions you get here are a lot more likely to be accurate than those from more well-known news pundits.

Uncategorized hubdub, launch, pundits