Space Shuttle Discovery was initially scheduled to launch in November 2008 to complete mission STS-119 to make the International Space Station more comfortable for its growing number of residents. Four spacewalks are scheduled for the 14-day mission as the ISS crew install the final set of power-generating solar arrays. The mission also includes replacing a failed unit for a system that converts urine to potable water.

However, ongoing problems with Discovery’s hydrogen flow valves have led to a farcical series of delayed launches in February, with proposed launches on the 19th, 22nd and 27th all being delayed to allow more time to test the troubled valves.

After the fourth launch date cancellation on the 27th, there was more to-ing and fro-ing from NASA. They initially delayed the mission indefinitely, then set a launch date of NET (not earlier than) March 12, then brought this forward to March 11.

Despite Discovery now passing a Flight Readiness Review today and being officially cleared for launch on Wednesday the 11th, predictors are yet to be inspired with confidence that Discovery will actually launch, with the ‘Other’ option that encompasses a launch on the 11th March only sitting at 87%.

It is positive to see flight and astronaut safety prioritized over tight launch schedules and the pressure of finishing ISS construction before the fleet’s planned retirement in 2010, but this leaves us with a fairly uncertain prediction market - will we see lift-off in March?

When will Space Shuttle Discovery launch?

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Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

The Superbowl

This Sunday the Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers face off for the 43rd Superbowl. The favorites on Hubdub seem to consistently be the Steelers. Currently Hubdubbers give them a 62% chance of taking home the win on Sunday. Good luck to both teams!

Super Bowl XLIII - Arizona Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Steelers - Who will win?

Politics

With the easy part behind Obama, the new administration now has to govern. The first focus seems to be reaffirming Obama’s campaign promise regarding Guantanamo Bay. Pundits are already pointing out though that the rhetoric of change for Guantanamo Bay hasn’t yet been substantiated. So when will the first detainee depart Guantanamo Bay? Hubdub forecasts before May 1, 2009.

When will the first detainee leave Guantanamo?

Entertainment

Yes sports is all important and stuff and the Superbowl’s a pretty big event, but what about The Office on NBC? The Office will have its postSuperbowl episode following the Superbowl on Sunday, but how many viewers will stick around to watch it? Hubdub forecasts there’s a 32% chance of less than 20 million viewers sticking it out.

How many people will watch the postSuperbowl Office episode?

Even if you don’t watch the Superbowl you’ll probably still find some way to watch the commercials. The cost of these commercials? Well $3 million gets you about 30 seconds. Budweiser is expected to put on the highest rated commercials this year.

Super Bowl XLIII - Which commercial will have a higher rating on USA Today’s annual Ad Meter?

Science

The Space Shuttle’s future is sketchy, NASA’s working on a new workhorse for space exploration and a strangled economy isn’t helping keep these billion dollar behemoths afloat. There are 6 scheduled launches in 2009, but even now Hubdub predicts the likeliness of all 6 launching in 2009 is sketchy….

Will all 6 Space Shuttle missions scheduled for 2009 launch in 2009?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

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