Iran’s again in the headlights…and in the headlines.
As is often the case, there’s a lot of news coming out of the Middle East these days: plans are underway to withdraw troops from Iraq, Israel just elected a new Prime Minister, the Pope is planning a controversial May visit to Jerusalem, and so on. But once again seemingly trying to claw its way back to the top of the Middle East news piles is Iran; hardly a day goes by without some new–and often disturbing–headline from Tehran. Consider the following:
Will Iranian authorities release journalist Roxana Saberi sometime in March?
Just two days ago, Iran finally confirmed that US-born journalist Roxana Saberi had been arrested and was being detained. Iran’s official line is that Saberi is being held for working “illegally” in the country after her press card was revoked. Her father, however, has reported that she was arrested on charges of buying alcohol, something prohibited in the Islamic republic. Some are even speculating that Iran may consider her a spy.
Hubdub collectively feels there is currently a 62% chance Saberi will not be released by the end of this month, despite requests for them to do so.
If Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor goes into operation, when will it happen?
Iran recently staged a test run ( using lead instead of uranium)of their long-delayed Bushehr nuclear reactor. Iran says the reactor, 34 years in the making, is purely for generating electricity, but many folks–namely Israel and most of the Western world–fear that Tehran plans to use the facility to create material for use in one or more nuclear weapons. That fear has prompted some to speculate whether that reactor may end up being targeted for destruction by a Western power.
Hubdubbers so far give not much chance to Bushehr going online anytime soon, as is Iran’s goal. In fact, currently 38% feel that Bushehr will not be operational at all this year due to either political setbacks, engineering difficulties, or the targeted demolition of the facility by some external military force.
Iran has release sensitive US documents via Gnutella. Will there be any others?
It seems that a US defense contractor used his work laptop–containing sensitive (though not classified) schematics for Marine One, the Sikorsky VH-60 used by President Obama–to share personal files (music, vidoes, etc.) from home…and in doing so allowed a cybercriminal stationed in Iran to gain access to those schematics, a cybercriminal who then made those schematics available on the Gnutella file-sharing network for people everywhere.
(Adding a bit of intrigue to this story is the fact that defense contractor Lockheed-Martin currently has a multibillion-dollar contract to replace the fleet of White House helicopters, a contract which just a week ago Obama spoke of postponing. But no that the whole world knows the inner workings of the choppers, might it not just be a great time to go ahead with the new aircraft? Huh? Don’t you think?)
Hubdub players overhwlemingly feel Iran will release no further classified or sensitive documents by the end of April. What do you think?
Look for these and other Iranian stories to dominate Middle East headlines over the next few months; Iran’s holding elections in June, the Obama administration may sit down with Iran’s leaders soon, and Israel has yet to confirm or deny whether they’re running covert operations in Tehran.
Stay tuned!
–Jim Pettit (sqlman)