Well the Oscars have come and gone and although most pundits are chattering about Slumdog’s amazing 8 wins and Hugh Jackman’s dulcet tones, I’m more impressed by Hubdub’s amazing success.

Out of the major races, we got EVERY SINGLE ONE RIGHT. We were also the only major prediction exchange to correctly predict the Best Actor race (Betfair, HSX, InTrade, Newsfutures and even Nate Silver all gave the gold to Mickey Rourke). Also, in five of the big 6 races, we showed higher confidence than InTrade predictors.

From the complete 24 award lineup, we nailed 19, generally by impressive condifence margins. Check out all of our settled markets here.

Not only have Hubdubbers had a successful night, each of my personal Oscar predictions were correct and I added another 40 thousand Hubbucks to my coffers. Award season is now finally behind us, but American Idol is just getting started!

Uncategorized hubdub, Oscars

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

General
The crash of a Colgan Air flight last Friday was the worst air disaster in the U.S. for quite some time, but why did 50 people perish? With revelations about the autopilot being on at the time of the crash, currently Hubdub is forecasting the crash was caused by human error. Significant ice buildup on the wings though has Hubdub forecasting the second likeliest cause was bad weather.

What’s the ‘main’ cause of the fatal Buffalo plane crash?

Entertainment

Since the Oscars Best Picture market was created last month there’s been a significant favorite all the way through. Currently Slumdog Millionaire has an 88% chance of taking home Best Picture, in second place right now is Brad Pitt’s the Curious Case of Benjamin Button with 8%. For all our other Oscar’s related market go here.

81st Academy Awards: Who will win the Oscar for Best Picture?

Sean Penn (Milk) and Micky Rourke (The Wrestler) seem locked in a continuing struggle for best actor. At first Rourke’s surprise performance saw him as the clear favorite for Best Actor this year. In the last few weeks though Sean Penn has picked up a sizable lead, and currently Hubdub forecasts he has a 62% chance of winning this year.

81st Academy Awards: Who will win the Oscar for Best Actor?

Often during the Oscar’s we get the wetworks from almost everyone who wins… This year it’s doubtful that won’t happen again. In the highly prized Best Actress category, there’s atleast a 62% chance according to Hubdub that the winner starts crying.

Will the actress that wins the best actress Oscar cry?

The price of oil has been about as, if not more turbulent then the stock markets in general these days. So turbulent that I think we can have a Hubdub first in that it’s truly anyones game as to whether we get $30 or $40 oil first. The market has had many wild swings, and it was only created last Friday. Right now Hubdub forecasts there’s a 54% chance Oil reaches $40 first.

Oil- up or down? Which comes first - $30 oil or $40 oil?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Hubdub Top 5 81st academy awards, airplane crash, autopilot, best actor, best actress, Best Picture, buffalo, colgan air, cry, gas, ice, Micky Rourke, Milk, oil prices, Oscars, pilot error, sean penn, Slumdog Millionaire, stock market, The Wrestler

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Business
Although optimism still surrounds the new President, that optimism hasn’t reached the financial markets. In fact it seems the opposite is happening. Within the first 100 days Hubdub forecasts there’s a above 50% chance that the DJIA will have a one-day drop of 6%. Which at current measures would be a drop of 480 points in a day!

Will the DJIA have a one-day drop of 6% or more during Obama’s first 100 days as president?

Politics
This week with the new Stimulus package hitting the Senate floor, and the markets still in disarray, the Presidents path is fraught with danger. Despite the danger though Hubdub forecasts Obama has a 43% chance of retaining a 66% - 67% approval rating next Monday.

What will President Obama’s approval rating be on Monday February 9, 2009?

Entertainment
The 51st Grammy Awards will be on Feb. 8 in Los Angeles. The biggest award of the night is certain to be song of the year. Coldplay with Viva La Vida are trading as the main favorites with a 63% chance, trading second is American Boy from Estelle Feat and Kanye West trading at 17%.

Grammy Awards ‘09: Song of the Year

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards or simply the BAFTA’s are also being announced on February 8th. With the Oscars coming up the BAFTA’s should be a sign of things to come. Sean Penn is in the lead for Best Actor in both the Oscar’s and the BAFTA’s with an above 65% chance.

BAFTA: Who Will Win Best Actor?

World
The new Pope has had a tough time convincing critics he’s all for religious equality. First he caused outrage with Muslims and now the pardoning of a Holocaust denying bishop has got the Jewish community in a uproar. How does Hubdub forecast the Pope will deal with the situation? Silence is golden…

The Pope pardoned a Holocaust denial bishop - How will he respond to critics?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Hubdub Top 5 approval rating, BAFTA, barack obama, best actor, coldplay, djia, dow jones industrial average, entertainment, financial crisis, first 100 days, gallup, grammy awards, holocaust, hubdub, jewish, Oscars, sean penn, song of the year, the pope, viva la vida

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics

One phrase epitomizes Barack Obama and his call to arms, ‘Yes We Can.’ Throughout the election he repeated it, but with election over will Obama seek to reuse ‘Yes We Can’ at the inauguration? Hubdub predicts the answer is no. By 54% Hubdubbers put their money on Obama not mentioning the phrase at all.

Presidential Inauguration: How many times will President Obama use the phrase “Yes We Can”?

World

Analysts believe Israel is not only sending a message to Hamas in Gaza but to Washington, and more specifically Barack Obama. It’s thought Israel wants to do as much damage to Hamas, before Obama comes to power. For now though, at least to Hubdubbers it’s unclear if the conflict in Gaza will even reach a cessation before Obama is inaugurated.

Will Israel cease fire in the current Gaza conflict before Obama is sworn in as President

Entertainment

Gran Torino killed at the box office  last weekend, making over $20 million dollars. Is their Oscar potential for Eastwood though? The movie was snubbed by the Golden Globes, but Hubdubbers see redemption in its  future, forecasting Clint Eastwood has a 67% chance of being nominated for best actor for his role in the movie.

Oscar Buzz: Will Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino) be nominated for Best Actor?

The Golden Globes accidentally posted a win for Anne Hathaway4 days early, so it seems likely she’s a safe bet for an Oscar nod. She does however, face the embarrassing release of Bride Wars at the same time that the Academy is trying to decide if she’s Best Actress material. Certainly not all publicity is good publicity.

Oscar Buzz: Will Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married) be nominated for Best Actress?

Sports

The Philadelphia Eagles had a upset win over the Giants this Saturday, at least for this New York fan. Now as the Eagles head to the NFC Championship Game they’re no longer the underdogs at Hubdub. We’re forecasting they win against the Arizona Cardinals. Giving them a 68% chance of victory.

NFC Championship - Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals - Who will win?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Hubdub Top 5 Academy Awards, Anne Hathaway, Arizona cardinals, barack obama, Bride Wars, ceasefire, clint eastwood, forecast, gaza, gaza city, gaza war, gran torino, hamas, inauguration, national footbal league, NFC Championship game, NFL, Oscars, palestine, Philadelphia Eagles, politics, rachel getting married, yes we can

The announcement of the 81st Oscar nominations are only a week and a half away, but after the flurry of award shows the past month, much of the mystery surrounding the awards is rapidly fading.  

Best Picture

Four films are near locks for best picture nominations (Slumdog, Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon and Milk) The only real wild card in the race, the Dark Knight, is looking better and better for a spot in the final five — however, the nomination is unlikely to do it any good because Slumdog seems to be walking away with all the bling this awards season.

My Prediction:  Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Dark Knight

Best Actor

The real story in the Best Actor category is not who will win (Sean Penn) but who will be nominated. Although Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke and Frank Langella are all widely expected to be nominated,  the final two spots are being highly contested by three candidates:  Brad Pitt, Clint Eastwood and Leonardo Dicaprio. A month ago, I would have poured my money into Benjamin Button but although the movie is still receiving amazing press, Pitt’s role has largely been chalked up to amazing special effects and make-up. Sadly, I think he will find himself sitting in the cold this time around.

My Prediction:  Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke, Frank Langella, Clint Eastwood, Leonardo Dicaprio

Best Actress

Of the biggies, the Best Actress race is the most highly contested this year. Early favoite Meryl Streep has been steadily losing momentum through the awards season and now instead of an expected winner, there’s a good chance that  she may not even make the nominee shortlist.  Kate Winslet’s last flim with Leo, Titanic,  earned her a nomination although he was shut out. It would seem to be poetic justice should he be nominated this time around for Revolutionary Road and she not, but at the moment that seems more likely that they will both receive nominations.  I give this one to Anne Hathaway on sheer hutzpah. Anyone who has the audacity to release a stinker like Bride Wars during Academy ballot voting deserves some respect.

My prediction: Anne Hathaway, Kate Winslet, Kristen Scott Thomas,  Sally Hawkins, Meryl Streep 

Check back on the 22nd to see how I did with the nominees and place your bets on the final winners! Feel free to post your own predictions in the comments, but be sure to put your h$ where your mouth is on the linked market pages!

Uncategorized Academy Awards, Oscars

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics

Damon Weaver a 5th grader may be small but he packs a punch after interviewing Caroline Kennedy and Joe Biden. Can he get to the top of the food chain though? Sadly Hubdub doubts Damon will get his Obama interview, only giving him a 21% chance.

Will the 5th grader, aspiring journalist get his Obama interview?

This week is shaping up to be a big one in the realm of politics. You have the Minnesota Senate race, the Roland Buris controversy and much more. The Richardson dropout due to a investigation though came to many as a surprise. Will he actually be indicted? It doesn’t look likely, Hubdub gives Richardson only a 31% chance of indictment.

Will a Federal Grand Jury indict Governor Bill Richardson before March 1, 2009?

World News

The Israeli operations in Gaza are in no way winding down, in fact from most reports it seems the incursion is widening. But with mounting international pressure and civilian casualties when will Israel withdraw? Hubdubbers think by Jan. 19th the ground operations will have ceased.

Israeli army begins the invasion of Gaza. When will they withdraw the forces ?

College Football

The Florida Gators have a strong and championship tested team, and for their hard work they’re the favorites. Having a 56% chance of winning this years BCS National Championship Game, at time of writing. Their opponents on the other hand the Oklahoma Sooners have had a troubled ride up to this point.

BCS National Championship Game - Oklahoma vs Florida - Which team will win?

The Oscars

WallE and The Dark Knight are vying for the last nomination spot for best picture. So far The Dark Knight seems to be the favorite, but many analysts think WallE may have the edge. Nominations are announced on Jan. 22nd, and for now Hubdub isn’t betting on WallE getting the nomination.

Oscar Buzz: Will WallE be nominated for Best Picture?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Uncategorized Academy Awards, barack obama, bcs national championship game, Bill Richardson, college football, damon weaver, Florida Gators, forecast, gaza, hamas, indictment, israel, Oklahoma sooners, Oscars, walle, withdraw

Nominees for the Oscars are going to be announced on January 22nd, but the speculation has already been simmering for quite awhile now. Much of the speculation has surrounded Heath Ledger and possible nomination as a last hurrah for his brilliant but short lived career.

At Hubdub we’re forecasting Ledger will win an Oscar for his role as the Joker. At time of writing he stands a 65% chance of winning an Oscar. The Dark Knight has a 59% chance of being nominated for Best Picture at time of writing as well.

Will Heath Ledger win an Oscar in 2009 for his role as the Joker in Dark Knight?

Oscar Buzz: Will ‘Dark Knight’ be nominated for Best Picture?

Usually commercial successes at the box office don’t make waves at the Oscars. I myself doubt Ledger will win an Oscar. Although his acting was superb, it’s extremely rare for dead actors to receive awards and I can’t stop thinking that our Hubdub forecast may be users predicting with their hearts instead of their brains. I’ve put H$300 on Ledger not getting a Oscar, anyone with me?

More typical Oscar movies such as The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Milk and Slumdog Millionaire are poised to be nominated for Best Picture, with all three being given an above 80% chance of being nominated by Hubdubbers.

Stay tuned for a more in depth blog post from our resident entertainment category editor at Hubdub, Jenni, in the next week.

Uncategorized Academy Awards, Best Picture, forecast, Heath Ledger, Milk, oscar nominations, Oscars, predictions, Slumdog Millionaire, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight