Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Sports

March Madness is upon us my friends and life is good! So far Hubdub isn’t forecasting any of the known teams will be crowned winner in two weeks time. Although so far it seems North Carolina is the second likeliest front runner. If you haven’t done so already check out Hubdub’s March Madness Predict-A-Thon for more NCAA forecasts.

Which Team will Win the NCAA Championship?

Politics
Some of our esteemed Supreme Court Justices are getting a bit old, and with Barack Obama now in the White House it’s likely a more liberal leaning justice will be appointed soon. The question though is which justice will step down first? Hubdub forecasts the most likely candidate for resignation is David Souter with a 55% chance of stepping down.

Who will be the first Supreme Court Justice replaced?

World News
With wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, it’s easy to forget sometimes that those countries aren’t the only possible threats to American security. A fact made clear this March when Chinese ships harassed an American naval ship in the South China Sea. Both sides don’t want an escalation of tensions, and thankfully Hubdubbers agree giving only a 29% chance of similar tensions within the next two weeks.

Will China further harass any US Navy ships operating in international waters?

Business
It seems our ailing economy is getting better number these days. Out of the woods? No, better than before? Yes. For now Hubdub forecasts there’s a 51% probability the Dow Jones Industrial Averages in 2009 will be within the 6000 to 6999.99 range.

What will be the lowest close for the DJIA in 2009?

Entertainment
American Idol Season 8 is heating up and with a final listing of 10 possible winners, we can finally start predicting who’s gonna grab first place this year. In the lead this week, Adam Lambert (43%) and in second place Danny Gokey (27%). We’ve got 7 more weeks though, so don’t put your eggs all in one basket just yet.

Who will win American Idol Season 8?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Hubdub Top 5 2009, adam lambert, american idol, barack obama, basketball, conflict, danny gokey, david souter, djia, dow jones industrial, harass, March Madness, navy China, ncaa, north carolina, politics, ruth bader ginsberg, south china sea, sports, supreme court, supreme court justices, us navy, war

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics
Every week seems to be a mixed bag, despite that though Obama’s approval rating is on a downward trend. Hubdub forecasts next Mondays approval rating will be within 61%-63%.

What will President Obama’s approval rating be on Monday March 16th, 2009?

Entertainment
The Rihanna and Chris Brown controversy seems to be something of a sticky issue for many. Despite all the hubbub regarding the Brown’s though, Hubdub predicts they’re most likely to either get engaged/married or the DA will drop all charges against Chris Brown.

What’s next for the R&B couple Rihanna and Chris Brown?

Sports
And so the MADNESS is upon us. Sports junkies and gamblers alike can rejoice this week as march madness kicks off. This year Hubdub predicts in NCAA Mens Basketball Connecticut has a 40% chance of winning the Big East Tournament.

NCAA Men’s Basketball - Team to win the Big East Tournament?

World News

Journalist Roxana Saberi was arrested on Feb. 1st in Iran for purchasing alcohol, which is illegal under Iranian law. The Iranian government has been mute on the issue while human rights group have accused Iran of stamping down on free speech from reporters. Where ever the truth lays by March 31st Hubdub forecasts there’s a 72% chance Roxana Saberi’s arrest is confirmed and she is not released.

Will Iranian authorities release journalist Roxana Saberi on or before March 31st?

Business

Bernie Madoff is a very bad, bad man, but will he seek redemption for his evil deeds by pleading guilty on all charges related to his arrest? Hubdub predicts redemption is in order for Madoff giving Madoff a 68% chance of pleading guilty on all charges.

Will Bernie Madoff plead guilty to all charges on or before Thursday, March 12?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Uncategorized approval rating, barack obama, basketball, bernie madoff, big east tournament, charges, Chris Brown, college football, gallup, guilty, iran, jail arrest, job approval, journalist, March Madness, ncaa, obama adminastration, politics, Rihanna Brown, Roxana Saberi

Hubdub forecasts Michael Steele the newly elected Republican party chairman has a 49% chance of accepting Stephen Colbert’s challenge to have a ‘rap off’ on national television. In my own opinion though the odds are more like 5%.

Will RNC Chair Michael Steele accept Stephen Colberts challenge to a ‘Rap off’ on his show?

Steele has been trying to broaden the GOP since becoming chairman. Trying to garner more support among African Americans and other voting blocs in the US, but is he silly enough to think rapping will get him more support?

I can’t imagine anyone is advising Steele to actually rap. It would just make him look like a joke, especially when he’s trying desperately to fight off Limbaugh lovers and the Obama administration. So the question is, why does Hubdub still give the ‘rap off’ a almost 50% chance of happening?

My best guess is that people aren’t looking at the market anymore, which means there’s easy money out there for anyone reading this blog! If there was a real chance Steele would actually rap he wouldn’t still have a 73% chance of staying on as RNC chairman, because a ‘rap off’ with Stephen Colbert doesn’t seem like something GOP members pride themselves on.

Will Michael Steele last until Nov. 2, 2010 as RNC Chairman?

politics gop, michael steele, politics, rap, rap off, rapping, republican national committee, republican party, republicans, rnc, rnc chairman, stephen colbert

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics
Although Hubdub forecasts the Stimulus package will pass the Senate, exactly how much bi-partisan support it will have is still unclear. With a 45% chance Hubdub forecasts at least 2-3 Republicans vote to approve the package when it comes to a vote.

How many Republican Senators will vote to approve the current $800b + stimulus bill?

World
It seems a new wave of protesting is sweeping across the land, shoe throwing. First former President Bush and now Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. With so many leaders out there and just as many people angry at them, another country’s leader is bound to be ‘attacked.’ Currently Hubdub forecasts within a year it happens again.

Will there be a new incident of a shoe thrown at a country’s leader?

Business
Almost 600,000 American jobs were lost in January, raising unemployment levels to 7.6%. A sign many economists say points to a deepening crisis, with even worse months ahead. Sadly Hubdub has no good news yet, forecasting February sees unemployment rising to 8%.

What will the US unemployment rate be for February 2009?

Sports
In February Sports Illustrated releases their 2009 Swimsuit issue. Brooklyn Decker is the front runner for cover model with a 37% chance. If you’d like to drool over what you can’t ever have, click on the market for ‘images.’ I won’t lie these women are very, very beautiful and lets not kid ourselves, sex sells.

Who will be the cover model of Sports Illustrated’s swimsuit edition 2009?

Science
Volcanic eruptions occur allot more often then some think. This February we may see the natural beauty of one from Mount Redoubt, located near Alaska’s largest city. Getting forecasts on exactly when she’ll blow her top, as you can tell by the graph isn’t easy though. For now according to Hubdub there’s only a 21% chance Mount Redoubt erupts before February 15th.

Will Mount Redoubt erupt before Feb. 15/09?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Hubdub Top 5 alaska, barack obama, Brooklyn Decker, business, democrats, financial crisis, hubdub, mount redoubt, politics, republicans, senate, shoe, Sports Illustrated, stimulus, stimulus package, swimsuit issue, throw, unemployment, volcano, wen jiabao

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Business

The DJIA closed on Jan. 16th at 8281.22. Not a good sign for the incoming Obama administration. Although with the inauguration on Tuesday and “hope” on everyone’s minds will the DJIA bounce back up this week? Seems Hubdubbers have hope on their minds too, giving the DJIA closing up this week a 65% chance.

Will the DJIA close up this week?

Politics

Despite the inaugration of Barack Obama this week there are other politics stories out there! For example Barack Obama’s old steel-blue 2005 Chrysler 300C is up for auction on Ebay. For the next President’s old car you’d expect it to sell for something in the millions. In actuality Hubdub forecasts it goes for $300,000 or less. Celebrity isn’t what it used to be….

How much will Barack Obama’s old car sell for?

Sports

The NHL All-Star game is on January 25th in Montreal.  It will be played East vs. West, or simply Penguins & Canadians vs the Ducks & Blackhawks. For now the Easterners are edging out the west, but the odds have been switching up and down all week.

Who will win the NHL All-Star game?

Entertainment

We’ve had this market on the list on and off for the last two months, it keeps on showing up though because it’s just a great market. The movie had seemed a shoe in for Best Picture,  but as the Oscars arrive it’s chances are dwindling day by day. Currently being given a 49% chance.

Oscar Buzz: Will ‘Dark Knight’ be nominated for Best Picture?

Tech

Our wallets aren’t doing so well this year, but in the developing world the size of your wallets isn’t really that important. People are much more concerned with just getting some food on the table. This is where www.freerice.com comes in, just got to the site and answer questions to donate some rice. They’ve already collected over 57,000,000,000 grains of rice can they get to 62,000,000,000 grains by March?

Will FreeRice.com surpass 62,000,000,000 in grains of rice donated by March 1, 2009?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Hubdub Top 5 all-star game, auction, barack obama, car, Chrysler 300c, djia, dow jones industrial average, ebay, entertainment, free rice, Heath Ledger, markets, national hockey league, politics, rice, The Dark Knight

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics

One phrase epitomizes Barack Obama and his call to arms, ‘Yes We Can.’ Throughout the election he repeated it, but with election over will Obama seek to reuse ‘Yes We Can’ at the inauguration? Hubdub predicts the answer is no. By 54% Hubdubbers put their money on Obama not mentioning the phrase at all.

Presidential Inauguration: How many times will President Obama use the phrase “Yes We Can”?

World

Analysts believe Israel is not only sending a message to Hamas in Gaza but to Washington, and more specifically Barack Obama. It’s thought Israel wants to do as much damage to Hamas, before Obama comes to power. For now though, at least to Hubdubbers it’s unclear if the conflict in Gaza will even reach a cessation before Obama is inaugurated.

Will Israel cease fire in the current Gaza conflict before Obama is sworn in as President

Entertainment

Gran Torino killed at the box office  last weekend, making over $20 million dollars. Is their Oscar potential for Eastwood though? The movie was snubbed by the Golden Globes, but Hubdubbers see redemption in its  future, forecasting Clint Eastwood has a 67% chance of being nominated for best actor for his role in the movie.

Oscar Buzz: Will Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino) be nominated for Best Actor?

The Golden Globes accidentally posted a win for Anne Hathaway4 days early, so it seems likely she’s a safe bet for an Oscar nod. She does however, face the embarrassing release of Bride Wars at the same time that the Academy is trying to decide if she’s Best Actress material. Certainly not all publicity is good publicity.

Oscar Buzz: Will Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married) be nominated for Best Actress?

Sports

The Philadelphia Eagles had a upset win over the Giants this Saturday, at least for this New York fan. Now as the Eagles head to the NFC Championship Game they’re no longer the underdogs at Hubdub. We’re forecasting they win against the Arizona Cardinals. Giving them a 68% chance of victory.

NFC Championship - Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals - Who will win?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Hubdub Top 5 Academy Awards, Anne Hathaway, Arizona cardinals, barack obama, Bride Wars, ceasefire, clint eastwood, forecast, gaza, gaza city, gaza war, gran torino, hamas, inauguration, national footbal league, NFC Championship game, NFL, Oscars, palestine, Philadelphia Eagles, politics, rachel getting married, yes we can

This week in politics the focus has been on the Senate, with Al Franken and Roland Burris as the main actors. In the last three days though the forecasts from Hubdub on Franken and Burris have reversed. At the start of the week Hubdub was forecasting Al Franken would be seated prior to Roland Burris, but once Harry Reid and other congressional democrats met with Burris the tides changed

The two men at the center of politics this week

The lessons here are that prediction market forecasts are somewhat dependent on the news. Especially when the news is secured from a small amount of figures who regular users won’t have access to. Once Reid said Burris might ultimately get the Senate seat, on Jan. 7th, the Hubdub market drastically reversed. From Franken being seated first to Burris being seated first. A second observation is that markets on Hubdub such as the one in question, respond extremely quickly to breaking news. On Jan. 7th the big money was consistently placed on Burris being sworn in first, from the moment Reid’s meeting with Burris hit the media. This is in comparison to Jan. 6th and the early part of Jan. 7th before Reid made his comments, when Franken was forecast to be the first seated

The easiest way to understand of course is to just look at the market graph which I’ve posted below.

U.S. Senate - Who will be sworn in first? Roland Burris or Al Franken?

politics al franken, harry reid, media, politics, prediction markets, roland burris, senate

Click here for the list of nominees.

Politics has proved to be a tough year on the pundits. Most expected a Democrat to take the White House but they thought the new President would be wearing a pantsuit rather than pants. USA Today called it right predicting President Obama but then immediately blotted their copy book by also predicting President Guiliani. The News & Observer called McCain as the Republican nominee but also called it for Romney and Guiliani. They didn’t manage to get much else right either.

The Economist also plumped for Clinton, predicted a crisis in Taiwan that failed to occur and also forecast that the US would avoid recession. To be fair, the Economist was in the mainstream when they predicted the US avoiding the recession and they did manage to divine that China would win the most Olympic gold medals. However, in all it was a distinctly below par year for them.

The winner of the category also predicted a Clinton win and a recession-free US. However, they did also point out that the Credit Crunch would continue moving into a second chapter, that Musharraf would lose power and that oil would break the $100 mark before dropping by the end of the year. That winner was the crack corp of pundits at the FT.  An inscribed quaich is on its way to them now.

Pundit Awards awards, politics, predictions, pundits

As announced last week, News Pundits is running awards for the top pundits who made the most accurate 2008 predictions. For the remainder of this year we will be publishing a list of nominees for each category. If you want to nominate another pundit please do so by providing a link in the comments below.

Below are the nominations for the politics category:

Cal Thomas and Bob Beckel - USA Today

Rob Christensen - The News & Observer

Daniel Franklin - The Economist

Radley Balko - Fox News

Editorial team - Financial Times

Ed Quillen - Denver Post

Claude Salhani - Middle East Times

As you can see not many called both the primaries and the presidential elections correctly.

Pundit Awards awards, politics, predictions, pundits