Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics
The last weeks for the Obama administration haven’t been a honeymoon. The DJIA collapse last week, mismatched nominations and a severe lack of bipartisanship have brought Obama’s job approval to just over 60%. Obame rode to the White House on flames of glory, but in the last weeks those flames have certainly dimmed. On a bright note though Hubdub forecasts Obama has a 68% chance of ending his first 100 days with a 60-69%  approval rating.

What will President Obama’s approval rating be after his first 100 days in office?

Who would’ve guessed Roland Burris would be back in the news again so quickly? His last inklings of support are diminishing by the hour as politicians and some at the White House turn the other cheek. Sadly though, Hubdub predicts this old dog won’t be put down just yet. Giving him a 51% chance of survival till July 31st.

Will Roland Burris keep his Senate seat until July 31?

Business
If you’d like good news on the finance markets stay away from the Hubdub market regarding what will be the lowest close for the DJIA in 2009. For now the DJIA is still trading above 7000, but Hubdub forecasts there’s a combined 86% chance that the DJIA drops below 7000 in 2009.

What will be the lowest close for the DJIA in 2009?

It’s funny how even small remarks can drive the markets in different directions. Last week when speculation from Senator Dodd and others hinted towards bank nationalization, the markets dropped significantly. Will Citigroup or Bank of America actually be nationalized? Hard to say, Hubdub gives bank nationalization a 48% chance.

Will the U.S. government nationalize either Citigroup or Bank of America?

Sports
Tiger Woods just had a baby, and is also coming back from a major injury. Fortunately Woods is the kind of guy who can do anything, or at least mostly anything… At Hubdub we forecast he probably won’t get first place in his first tournament, but second to fifth place isn’t half bad!

PGA - In what position will Tiger Woods finish in his first tournament of 2009?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Hubdub Top 5 bank, bank of america, barack obama, citigroup, djia, dow jones industrial average, financial crisis, gallup, golf, illinois, job approval, nationalization, pga, roland burris, senate, tiger woods, white house

This week in politics the focus has been on the Senate, with Al Franken and Roland Burris as the main actors. In the last three days though the forecasts from Hubdub on Franken and Burris have reversed. At the start of the week Hubdub was forecasting Al Franken would be seated prior to Roland Burris, but once Harry Reid and other congressional democrats met with Burris the tides changed

The two men at the center of politics this week

The lessons here are that prediction market forecasts are somewhat dependent on the news. Especially when the news is secured from a small amount of figures who regular users won’t have access to. Once Reid said Burris might ultimately get the Senate seat, on Jan. 7th, the Hubdub market drastically reversed. From Franken being seated first to Burris being seated first. A second observation is that markets on Hubdub such as the one in question, respond extremely quickly to breaking news. On Jan. 7th the big money was consistently placed on Burris being sworn in first, from the moment Reid’s meeting with Burris hit the media. This is in comparison to Jan. 6th and the early part of Jan. 7th before Reid made his comments, when Franken was forecast to be the first seated

The easiest way to understand of course is to just look at the market graph which I’ve posted below.

U.S. Senate - Who will be sworn in first? Roland Burris or Al Franken?

politics al franken, harry reid, media, politics, prediction markets, roland burris, senate