Politics

In the Minnesota Senate race the legal battling between Republican Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken doesn’t seem to have an end in sight. Coleman again plans to appeal a court decision granting Franken the senate seat, but when does Hubdub think Minnesota will finally have its result? Hubdubbers think the new Minnesota Senator will most likely take his seat this month or next.

When will the new Minnesota Senator take his seat?

World
Stepped up Naval patrols in the waters off Somalia haven’t done enough to deter pirates from attempting piracy in the Gulf of Aden, but what will? Some suggest military operations against pirate land bases, but those types of operations could be costly, and for now there’s only a 29% that Somali land bases may be attacked by June 1st.

Will the US military attack any Somali Pirates land bases before June 1, 2009?

Technology
First it was using Facebook to show you had thousands of ‘friends,’ by adding as many people to your friends list. Now though it’s followers on Twitter instead of friends on Facebook. So far CNN has the most followers followed closely by Britney Spears. Britney though is most likely to get a million followers first with a 49% chance of getting to a million compared to CNN’s 32% chance.

Who will be first to get 1 million ‘Followers’ on Twitter?

General
The Big One is coming! Or is it? Every year we hear about how this might be the year for San Francisco’s big quake, and every year it doesn’t happen causing millions to become more complacent with living on a ticking time bomb. Will it happen anytime soon? Nope says Hubdub forecasting it’s 56% likely only something weaker than a 5 on the Richter scale happens anytime soon.

Will the Big One hit San Francisco? (hit with a significant Earthquake soon?)

Sports

The NFL draft is coming and the first picks for running back are most likely to be Knowshon Moreno or Chris Wells. Hubdubbers though are putting their bets on Moreno as the first running back to be picked. He has a pretty high chance of 60% according to Hubdub right now.

Who will be the first running back selected in the 2009 NFL Draft?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Uncategorized 1 million followers, al franken, britney spears, Chris Wells, cnn breaking news, Democrat, Knowshon Moreno, land bases, million followers, Minnesota, national footbal league, nfl draft, Norm Coleman, piracy, pirates, Republican, running back, san francisco, seat, senate, somalia, the big one, twitter followers

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics
The last weeks for the Obama administration haven’t been a honeymoon. The DJIA collapse last week, mismatched nominations and a severe lack of bipartisanship have brought Obama’s job approval to just over 60%. Obame rode to the White House on flames of glory, but in the last weeks those flames have certainly dimmed. On a bright note though Hubdub forecasts Obama has a 68% chance of ending his first 100 days with a 60-69%  approval rating.

What will President Obama’s approval rating be after his first 100 days in office?

Who would’ve guessed Roland Burris would be back in the news again so quickly? His last inklings of support are diminishing by the hour as politicians and some at the White House turn the other cheek. Sadly though, Hubdub predicts this old dog won’t be put down just yet. Giving him a 51% chance of survival till July 31st.

Will Roland Burris keep his Senate seat until July 31?

Business
If you’d like good news on the finance markets stay away from the Hubdub market regarding what will be the lowest close for the DJIA in 2009. For now the DJIA is still trading above 7000, but Hubdub forecasts there’s a combined 86% chance that the DJIA drops below 7000 in 2009.

What will be the lowest close for the DJIA in 2009?

It’s funny how even small remarks can drive the markets in different directions. Last week when speculation from Senator Dodd and others hinted towards bank nationalization, the markets dropped significantly. Will Citigroup or Bank of America actually be nationalized? Hard to say, Hubdub gives bank nationalization a 48% chance.

Will the U.S. government nationalize either Citigroup or Bank of America?

Sports
Tiger Woods just had a baby, and is also coming back from a major injury. Fortunately Woods is the kind of guy who can do anything, or at least mostly anything… At Hubdub we forecast he probably won’t get first place in his first tournament, but second to fifth place isn’t half bad!

PGA - In what position will Tiger Woods finish in his first tournament of 2009?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Hubdub Top 5 bank, bank of america, barack obama, citigroup, djia, dow jones industrial average, financial crisis, gallup, golf, illinois, job approval, nationalization, pga, roland burris, senate, tiger woods, white house

As the final votes came through the House and Senate this past week, the tension in Washington and throughout America was visible to all. However the stimulus package provided a rare opportunity here at Hubdub. We were presented with a market from one of our users asking How much will the Final Stimulus Bill cost. The options were spread out very evenly, under 700 billion, 700-750 Billion, 750 - 800 Billion, over 800 Billion or no deal before March 29th. The percentages were spread out incredibly well, at 10, 20, 35, 30, and 5 respectively.  The news reports were reporting a deal exceeding 800 billion during the preliminary stages of the bill, then news leaked it could dip down to 780 billion, and this is where the excitement blossomed.  We had users who seemed to take two very hardlined approaches, and those users began to get into the market deep. One of the secrets to success at Hubdub is if you bought a position at 45%, and then it went to 30%, you should love it even more. That is a hard thing to commit to when the trend seems to be going away from you.

One of the most successful users in this market is Paul (username pmk2668) who originally bought in with a 5,000 dollar wager on 750-800 billion at 47%. He believed that in order for deal to be approved, cuts to spending would have to be made, however as the days went by, all the news kept the package price at above 800 Billion. Paul was able to continue buying into the postion of 750-800 Billion at better and better odds, as the mainstream seemed to believe it would be higher. By the time the congress was ready to vote, Paul had more than 123,948 dollars in the market, with a potential windfall of $238,628 dollars. Paul even took several opportunities to cash out about $26,000 in wagers earning him about $37,000 so he could buy in with those profits at the lower percentages. This market was made possible because there was a large user base of people pumping money into what the mainstream media reported would be the 800 Billion plus number. One of my favorite quotes from Paul is that he said “I woke up one morning and thought there had been a huge error at Hubdub, I was worthy twice what I went to bed with”. What he quickly learned is that the mainstream media had finally heard the amount reached by compromise was going to be 787 Billion.  So Paul went from rags to riches in a few short days. While many Hubdubbers on the other side of the coin lost substantial amounts, many were able to pull money out on the way down to limit the loss.

It is not very often a market becomes this exciting, with fortunes won and loss as fast as the news breaks. The graph for this market is one of the most spectacular in recent history. I wonder how many of you out there would have had the nerves to let your 90% of your net worth ride on such a huge market. I know for me, I played it safe, I bought in and sold out of market a few times, earning small rewards. The final statistics on this market were over 880 predictions made, more than $500,000 in wagers placed, 77 comments, and a unique outcome, those who wagered in lost were congratulating Paul, who in his words said this “People were sending me messages and congratulatory remarks. Here I had won a ton of money and everyone appeared happy for me. I think that says a lot about those involved. The heart felt comments were almost touching enough to give the HUBDUB funds back…..I said almost! I will be giving it away sometime I am sure in my next wild prediction…..or perhaps the one after that or somewhere down the line. I am happy to encourage someone to beat me and will offer congratulations when it happens. Until then today is my day and I am trying my best to climb up the leader board.”
How much will the Final Stimulus bill Cost?

How much will the final stimulus bill cost?

politics barack obama, congress, house, senate, stimulus

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics
Although Hubdub forecasts the Stimulus package will pass the Senate, exactly how much bi-partisan support it will have is still unclear. With a 45% chance Hubdub forecasts at least 2-3 Republicans vote to approve the package when it comes to a vote.

How many Republican Senators will vote to approve the current $800b + stimulus bill?

World
It seems a new wave of protesting is sweeping across the land, shoe throwing. First former President Bush and now Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. With so many leaders out there and just as many people angry at them, another country’s leader is bound to be ‘attacked.’ Currently Hubdub forecasts within a year it happens again.

Will there be a new incident of a shoe thrown at a country’s leader?

Business
Almost 600,000 American jobs were lost in January, raising unemployment levels to 7.6%. A sign many economists say points to a deepening crisis, with even worse months ahead. Sadly Hubdub has no good news yet, forecasting February sees unemployment rising to 8%.

What will the US unemployment rate be for February 2009?

Sports
In February Sports Illustrated releases their 2009 Swimsuit issue. Brooklyn Decker is the front runner for cover model with a 37% chance. If you’d like to drool over what you can’t ever have, click on the market for ‘images.’ I won’t lie these women are very, very beautiful and lets not kid ourselves, sex sells.

Who will be the cover model of Sports Illustrated’s swimsuit edition 2009?

Science
Volcanic eruptions occur allot more often then some think. This February we may see the natural beauty of one from Mount Redoubt, located near Alaska’s largest city. Getting forecasts on exactly when she’ll blow her top, as you can tell by the graph isn’t easy though. For now according to Hubdub there’s only a 21% chance Mount Redoubt erupts before February 15th.

Will Mount Redoubt erupt before Feb. 15/09?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Hubdub Top 5 alaska, barack obama, Brooklyn Decker, business, democrats, financial crisis, hubdub, mount redoubt, politics, republicans, senate, shoe, Sports Illustrated, stimulus, stimulus package, swimsuit issue, throw, unemployment, volcano, wen jiabao

This week in politics the focus has been on the Senate, with Al Franken and Roland Burris as the main actors. In the last three days though the forecasts from Hubdub on Franken and Burris have reversed. At the start of the week Hubdub was forecasting Al Franken would be seated prior to Roland Burris, but once Harry Reid and other congressional democrats met with Burris the tides changed

The two men at the center of politics this week

The lessons here are that prediction market forecasts are somewhat dependent on the news. Especially when the news is secured from a small amount of figures who regular users won’t have access to. Once Reid said Burris might ultimately get the Senate seat, on Jan. 7th, the Hubdub market drastically reversed. From Franken being seated first to Burris being seated first. A second observation is that markets on Hubdub such as the one in question, respond extremely quickly to breaking news. On Jan. 7th the big money was consistently placed on Burris being sworn in first, from the moment Reid’s meeting with Burris hit the media. This is in comparison to Jan. 6th and the early part of Jan. 7th before Reid made his comments, when Franken was forecast to be the first seated

The easiest way to understand of course is to just look at the market graph which I’ve posted below.

U.S. Senate - Who will be sworn in first? Roland Burris or Al Franken?

politics al franken, harry reid, media, politics, prediction markets, roland burris, senate